It’s anyone’s guess how the 2023 MLB Draft will shake out.
Late uncertainty has thrown into question who the Pirates will be taking with the first overall pick, and the only given at this point feels like the Nationals using the second overall pick on a player who won a national championship with LSU in June.
The MLB Draft is never as simple as some of the other drafts. Teams won’t always take the best player available because they will need to save money for later picks. They also won’t be picking for immediate need because many of these picks will be in the minor leagues for several years. They’ll arrive to play for a completely different team than the one in 2023 or even 2024.
That’s why grading draft picks on draft day can be a challenging exercise: it’s all a crapshoot for a few years. But based on past pick values, player analysis and overall draft outlook, it’s still possible to give grades and decide what to make of each team’s pick in the early stages of the draft.
MORE: Watch the 2023 MLB Draft live with Fubo in the U.S. (free trial)
Sporting News will try to do exactly that with draft-day grades for each first-round selection. Follow below for complete results.
MLB DRAFT: SN’s mock draft | Top 100 big board
MLB Draft grades 2023: Live picks, analysis for Round 1
Round 1
1. Pittsburgh Pirates — Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU
There’s no question about it: Paul Skenes is as good as it gets. He’s been compared to Stephen Strasburg among the most highly touted pitching prospects of all time. The LSU right-hander could pitch in the bullpen right now for the Pirates, and many expect he will be on a similar timeline to Strasburg in pitching out of Pittsburgh’s rotation as early as 2024. This is a generational talent, who can be an ace in the big leagues very soon.
MORE: Why Pirates took Skenes over Crews at 1-1
2. Washington Nationals — Dylan Crews, OF, LSU
Signing bonus demands likely dropped Dylan Crews from going first overall to second, and the Nationals get to benefit from Pittsburgh’s bonus pool strategy. Crews is the most refined collegiate hitter the draft has seen in years, with many believing he has what it takes to be an impact top- or middle-of-the-order bat next year. His approach is incredibly advanced (71 walks to 46 strikeouts in 2023), and he has plenty of raw power (18 home runs). Crews should be able to stick in center, and might be in Washington next year. The Nationals have had two MVP-caliber outfielders recently in Bryce Harper and Juan Soto. Crews is next in line.
3. Detroit Tigers — Max Clark, OF, Franklin High (Ind.)
This is the first pick that is a bit of a shocker. Detroit was expected to be headed toward Wyatt Langford if Skenes and Crews were off the board. But Max Clark is clearly worthy of going this high. Of the top five draft prospects, he is the fastest and is the easiest lock to stay in center. He has an advanced hit tool for a prep bat, and he could develop more power as he grows into his 6-1, 190-pound frame. Drafting high school hitters always carries a degree of risk, and Langford would have been a much safer pick, but this could be a major boom down the line.
MORE: Everything to know about Max Clark
4. Texas Rangers — Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida
The Rangers might have been shocked to hear that Langford was available at No. 4. He was a late favorite to go No. 1 overall, and most mocks had him going no lower than third to the Tigers. But here he is, and Texas jumps on the chance to draft him. Langford might have the most offensive upside of any collegiate hitter, with tons of raw power and the best power/speed combination of any player in the draft. He might not be a long-term center fielder, but if he moves to a corner and can focus on the bat, he could be a middle-of-the-order hitter as early as late 2024.
5. Minnesota Twins — Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick High (N.C.)
There was some late speculation Minnesota might go to the college route rather than take one of the clear top-five talents. The Twins have put that to rest and taken the best player available. Jenkins is one of the most refined hitters in the high school class, and he has a ton of raw power. The debate between him and Clark as the top high school player came down to whether you wanted the better hitter (Jenkins) or the more well-rounded player. Jenkins will likely move to a corner outfield spot, but he should be a future middle-of-the-order hitter.
6. Oakland Athletics — Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon
There was no doubt about who the top five players in the 2023 MLB Draft class were, and if they went in the top five picks, there would be plenty of intrigue about No. 6. Jacob Wilson is a bit of an unexpected selection. Wilson has an incredibly advanced hit tool (he struck out just six times in 2023 with a .411 batting average), but he also doesn’t have much power (six home runs) and is a bit of an average runner (eight steals). He’s a safe bet to reach the majors, but the A’s will have to get him to tap into his power for him to be a major impact talent.
7. Cincinnati Reds — Rhett Lowder, SP, Wake Forest
There is not a more advanced pitcher in the draft than Rhett Lowder. The advanced pitching lab at Wake Forest helped develop him into an ace with exceptional command, the best changeup in the class and enough velocity to get past big leaguers. The Reds are seeing a rebuild start to come to fruition, with many of their prospects shining in the majors this year. Lowder can join them in short order, and might be the second pitcher in this class to reach the pros behind Skenes.
MORE: Rhett Lowder scouting report
8. Kansas City Royals — Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton High (Tex.)
High school catchers aren’t as risky as prep pitchers, but they’re close. Only five of 18 first-round, high school catchers since 2010 have reached the majors, and just two have positive bWAR. Blake Mitchell might be worth the gamble, however, as he has such an advanced bat for a high school player, and he has the athleticism — and more than enough arm strength — to stay behind the plate. The Royals developed second-round prep catcher MJ Melendez well, however, so there is certainly reason to believe they could be just the system to take a high school backstop.
9. Colorado Rockies — Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee
This has the chance to be a huge win for the Rockies. There’s also some risk. Chase Dollander looked like a 1-1 candidate after a dominant sophomore year at Tennessee, but his slider and control regressed in his junior season. If the Rockies can get him back to where he was, he’s exactly the type of pitcher that can succeed in Coors Field, with a high-velocity fastball and a slider that should survive the altitude. The Rockies have struggled with some high-upside pitchers in the past, but they also did well with Jon Gray, a very comparable pick by arsenal and polish.
10. Miami Marlins — Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit High (Ore.)
The Marlins got the best prep pitcher in the draft, and there’s plenty of reasons to believe it’ll work. He’s hit triple-digits on his fastball and has an electric slider that have helped give him separation from the rest of the prep pitchers in this class. His command is advanced for his age, and he has a repeatable delivery, helping to limit the risk. Why a B? Prep pitchers are an extremely risky demographic to gamble on this early in the draft, so, as with Mitchell, this is more about the history than the player.
11. Los Angeles Angels — Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Florida Atlantic
If the Angels’ goal is to get players to the big leagues fast, a la Zach Neto and Ben Joyce, this is a reasonable pick. Nolan Schanuel has an advanced hit tool and has started to show more power, a pivotal step for a first base/corner outfield prospect. Like Wilson, he’s a good bet to reach the majors because of the bat-to-ball skills and his approach. But if he’s limited to first, he’ll need to develop even more power to justify such an early selection.
12. Arizona Diamondbacks — Tommy Troy, 3B, Stanford
The Diamondbacks are drafting a hitter ready to face big league pitching. Tommy Troy rarely looked overmatched despite facing plenty of top competition during Stanford’s run to the College World Series. He’s one of the best pure hitters in the college ranks, and adds more raw power than several other hitters with a comparable hit tool. He’s likely going to be handling the hot corner long-term, but Arizona could try him at short or second. There are some slightly better prospects available, but Troy is a standout hitter who should justify the selection.
13. Chicago Cubs — Matt Shaw, 2B, Maryland
Some of the better prospects than Troy? One of them is Matt Shaw. He walked more than he struck out in 2023 while hitting .341 and he’s developed plenty of power that should make him an annual 20-plus homer threat. Add to that his speed (he went 18-for-19 on steals), and there’s little he can’t do on the offensive side. His only shortcomings are on defense, where he’s likely limited to second, but if he hits the way many expect, this is a tremendous pick at No. 13.
14. Boston Red Sox — Kyle Teel, C, Virginia
No matter where Kyle Teel landed, that pick was guaranteed to receive an A. There was some thought that he could go in the top five, and he was viewed as a near-lock to go in the top 10. The Red Sox stop his slide at No. 14, and get a catcher with an incredibly advanced bat and the athleticism needed to stay behind the plate. He might not be a Gold Glover, and there’s a chance he takes the Henry Davis development route with some time in the outfield, but that bat will play anywhere.
MORE: Scouting report on Virginia’s slugging catcher
15. Chicago White Sox — Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Mississippi
Another player like Shaw and Teel where regardless of spot, they would be receiving an A, Jacob Gonzalez had been talked about as another potential top-five pick before sliding all the way to No. 15. It’s a well-rounded profile, with a bat that will hit for average and power and the ability to stay at shortstop. He might not have any tools that jump off the page, but he also has no major flaws in his profile, making him a very safe prospect at No. 15.
16. San Francisco Giants — Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, James Madison High (Va.)
This pairing has been talked about quite a lot, and though we have Bryce Eldridge down at No. 22 on our big board, this feels like a perfect fit. The Giants took UConn’s Reggie Crawford last year with the intention of developing him as a two-way player, and they’re clearly willing to roll the dice on another one this year. The 6-7, left-handed swinging first baseman has a ton of raw power at the plate and he hits the mid-90s with his fastball with a solid slider. There’s a real chance the “American Ohtani” can pull off the two-way feat, and the Giants drafting him gives him a much better chance at doing so.
MORE: Who is Bryce Eldridge?
17. Baltimore Orioles
18. Milwaukee Brewers
19. Tampa Bay Rays
20. Toronto Blue Jays
21. St. Louis Cardinals
22. Seattle Mariners
23. Cleveland Guardians
24. Atlanta Braves
25. San Diego Padres
26. New York Yankees
27. Philadelphia Phillies
28. Houston Astros
Prospect promotion incentive picks
29. Seattle Mariners
Competitive Balance Round A
30. Seattle Mariners
31. Tampa Bay Rays
32. New York Mets
33. Milwaukee Brewers
34. Minnesota Twins
35. Miami Marlins
36. Los Angeles Dodgers
37. Detroit Tigers
38. Cincinnati Reds
39. Oakland Athletics
