With victory over Vietnam in their opening match of the 2023 Women’s World Cup, the U.S. took the first important step towards qualification to the knockout stage, but they slipped in their second match, held to a 1-1 draw with the Netherlands in a rematch of the 2019 Women’s World Cup final.
The U.S. was poor throughout the Netherlands match, especially in the first half, when they trailed in a Women’s World Cup group stage match for the first time since 2011.
U.S. manager Vlatko Andonovski will see qualification to the knockout round as merely the first step toward the ultimate goal of hoisting the Women’s World Cup trophy, hoping to be the first nation ever to win three consecutive FIFA World Cup titles.
Still, they must tackle the group stage before even thinking about progressing through the knockout rounds, and with more difficult matches on the horizon, there’s lots left to accomplish.
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Group E standings
Note: Overall goal differential is the first tiebreaker
| Team | PTS | GP | W | L | D | GF | GA | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. USA | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 |
| 2. Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| 3. Portugal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| 4. Vietnam | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 |
How USWNT can qualify to Round of 16 at Women’s World Cup
The USA have advanced to the knockout round of the Women’s World Cup at every single tournament to date, winning the group in seven of those eight previous tournaments.
As the No. 1-ranked team in the world, and the betting favorite coming into the tournament, surely the U.S. will have their goal be to finish atop the Group E standings, but even if they fall short of that, qualification is the bare minimum for such a global power.
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How USA qualify for 2023 Women’s World Cup Round of 16
After the draw against the Netherlands, the U.S. have just one more group stage game left, set to take on Portugal on Tuesday.
It’s a bit messy at the moment, still waiting for Portugal and Vietman to meet in their second game, but a win for the U.S. in their group finale would do the job.
- Win vs. Portugal
- Draw vs. Portugal AND neither Portugal or Vietnam win final 2 matches
- Loss vs. Portugal AND both Portugal and Vietnam fail to gain 4 points over final 2 matches
How USA can win Group E
Winning the group will come down to the final day of group play, and the U.S. are somewhat behind the eight ball as they have a tougher final day opponent.
Goal difference could come into play as the first of the group tiebreakers. Currently, the U.S. have a two-goal differential advantage over the Netherlands, but the United States have to play Portugal, while the Dutch get Vietnam on the final day.
Defeat to Portugal on the final day would almost surely leave the U.S. without a chance to top the group. The USA can win Group E with:
- Win vs. Portugal AND Netherlands loss or draw vs. Vietnam
- Win vs. Portugal AND maintain goal differential advantage over Netherlands
- Draw vs. Portugal AND Netherlands loss or draw vs. Vietnam
USA path to Women’s World Cup final
There are two paths for the USA if they want to reach the 2023 Women’s World Cup final.
As Group E winner:
- Round of 16:
- Sat, Aug. 5
- vs. 2G (likely Italy, Argentina or South Africa)
- Quarterfinals:
- Thu, Aug. 10
- vs. 1A or 2C (likely Switzerland, New Zealand, or Japan)
- Semifinals:
- Tue, Aug. 15
- vs. 1C / 2A / 1G / 2E (likely Sweden, Spain, New Zealand, or Netherlands)
As Group E runner-up:
- Round of 16:
- Sun, Aug. 6
- vs. 1G (likely Sweden)
- Quarterfinals:
- Fri, Aug. 11
- vs. 1C / 2A (likely Spain or New Zealand or Switzerland)
- Semifinals:
- Tue, Aug. 15
- vs. 1A / 2C / 1E / 2G (likely Switzerland, New Zealand, Japan, Italy, or Netherlands)
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How USWNT would be eliminated in Women’s World Cup group
The USWNT has never been eliminated from a Women’s World Cup in group stage play, having qualified for the knockout round in all eight previous editions of the competition.
Scenarios for the United States to be eliminated from group stage contention in 2023 are sufficiently convoluted at this point that laying each one out would be more complicated than its worth.
Yet it starts here: Any scenario where the United States is shockingly eliminated in the group stage MUST include at least one loss in their final two games.
Should they avoid defeat against both the Netherlands and Portugal, the USA would qualify for the knockout stage.
The USWNT surely have their sights set on winning the group, but qualification is the first and most important goal, and they would do so with any kind of result against both European opponents.
