With Rays ace Shane McClanahan (forearm) “highly unlikely” to pitch again this season, the 2023 AL Cy Young quest looks like a two-horse race. As it stands on BetMGM, Yankees righthander Gerrit Cole sits as a rather-hefty -275 favorite to claim his first-ever Cy Young, with Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman owning the second-best odds at +375.
The last time we checked into the AL Cy Young odds race on Aug. 2, Framber Valdez was within striking following his 93-pitch no-hitter. That day, Valdez owned the third-best Cy Young odds (+550) behind Cole and Gausman, but after allowing six runs on eight hits against the Orioles on Aug. 8, Valdez’s odds have tumbled to +1000.
Before his forearm injury, McClanahan, who sat as the betting favorite for a decent chunk of the regular season, owned the fourth-best Cy Young odds at +600. His odds are now off the board, clearing the way for Cole and Gausman to compete for the illustrious award down the stretch.
Although Cole has negative odds next to his name, is there a better value bet at this stage of the season? Let’s look at the top 10 contenders to win the 2023 AL Cy Young via BetMGM and discuss the best bet on the board not named Cole.
AL Cy Young Odds 2023: Top 10 contenders
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| Pitcher | Odds |
| Gerrit Cole | -275 |
| Kevin Gausman | +375 |
| Framber Valdez | +1000 |
| Luis Castillo | +1600 |
| Shohei Ohtani | +2500 |
| Felix Bautista | +8000 |
| George Kirby | +15000 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | +15000 |
| Jon Gray | +20000 |
| Zach Eflin | +20000 |
AL Cy Young Odds 2023: Best Bet
Kevin Gausman (+375)
Although Cole’s current odds peg him with a 73.33-percent chance to win the AL Cy Young, the gap between him and Gausman isn’t as pronounced as the odds imply. Gausman’s seen his odds jump from +500 to +375 after tossing seven no-hit innings against the Guardians on August 9 and could use his most recent outing as a springboard in challenging Cole.
Per Tankathon, Toronto has a slightly easier strength of schedule to finish the season than the Yankees, as their opponents own a combined win percentage of .497 (15th easiest). The Yankees draw the 20th-easiest schedule, with their opponents recording a win percentage of .506. Yes, Cole owns a superior 10-3 record to Gausman’s 9-6 mark, but Gausman has the edge in K rate (32.5 percent), walk rate (6 percent), chase rate (33.1 percent), and xFIP (2.91).
Frankly, neither Cole nor Gausman has done anything extraordinary to push them ahead of the pack. However, as long as the two continue to put forth quality starts every fifth day to give their team a chance to win, they’ll remain the betting favorites. However, we’re betting on Gausman to finish the season on a high note while helping the Blue Jays lock up one of the three AL wild card spots.
