The 12-team College Football Playoff era is a year away, and the format is still being debated, but we’re ready to look ahead and project what an expanded bracket would look like if there was one in place for the conclusion of this season.
For purposes of this exercise, we are going to go with the six automatic bids and six at-large selections since the Pac-12 is still in one piece in 2023. The automatic bids go to the six highest-ranked conference champions, and the remaining six go to the highest ranked teams.
Since it is obviously early in the season, we will use the Associated Press rankings as our projection tool both for the conference champions and at-large bids, and seed accordingly. The top four seeds go to the four highest-ranked conference champions.
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What a 12-team College Football Playoff would look like in 2023
With four weeks of the regular season in the books, this is how the seeding would look for a 12-team playoff:
1. Georgia (SEC champion)
2. Michigan (Big Ten champion)
3. Texas (Big 12 champion)
4. Florida State (ACC champion)
5. Ohio State
6. Penn State
7. Washington (Pac-12 champion)
8. USC
9. Oregon
10. Utah
11. Notre Dame
12. Fresno State (Mountain West champion)
Alabama would not make 12-team playoff
A few observations from this field:
No. 1, Alabama would not make the cut, as it checks in at No. 12 in the AP poll and would get bumped by highest Group of 5 champion Fresno State.
Secondly, Ohio State would not get a first-round bye even though it is ranked No. 4 because Michigan is the Big Ten champ in this model.
Lastly, the first five at-large bids are going to teams that will be members of the Big Ten next season in addition to the auto-bid. There would be six future Big Ten teams and only two future SEC teams (Georgia and Texas) in this field.
Projected 12-team CFP bracket matchups for 2023
First Round
Fresno State at Ohio State – Winner to play Florida State
Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keane gets his shot in the spotlight at the Shoe. Ohio State is the heavy favorite, and it will have a 16-vs.-1 NCAA tournament vibe to it before we get Buckeyes and Seminoles.
MORE: Ryan Day praises Buckeyes’ toughness after last-second win at Notre Dame
Notre Dame at Penn State – winner to play Texas
One of the best rivalries of the late ‘80s and early ‘90s reignites in Happy Valley. Texas and QB Quinn Ewers await for a stellar quarterfinal matchup.
Utah at Washington – winner to play Michigan
Dominant defense vs. dominant offense in Seattle. We’ll actually get to see this matchup on Nov. 11.
MORE: Breaking down the Caleb Williams-Shedeur Sanders showdown
Oregon at USC – winner to play Georgia
Another matchup we will see later this season and perhaps again in the Pac-12 championship. Georgia’s stout defense would be challenged by whichever quarterback advances between Bo Nix and Caleb Williams.
