Shohei Ohtani will grab most of the free-agent headlines, and rightfully so.
He’s the best, most unique free agent we’ve ever seen, and where he chooses to play next season (and probably the rest of his career) is of global significance, in a way no other baseball free-agent ever has been. The surgery on his arm dampened the build-up, but he’ll still land the largest contract in baseball history. It’ll be fun!
There are plenty of other impact-type players available this offseason, especially starting pitchers. We’ll follow up with a complete list of free-agents closer around World Series time, but for now, here’s a list of the 10 best players who will be available when free agency officially kicks off in early November.
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1. Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP
Entering Age 29 season
Why he’s here: I mean, you know. Unicorn ballplayer, global icon, marketing golden goose.
Top three landing places: Dodgers, Mariners, Mets
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP
Entering Age 25 season
Why he’s here: Yeah, maybe this is a little bit high. He does have to make the transition from Japan to the majors.
But, holy wow, he’s been so very good in Japan that it feels improbable that the transition will be more than anything but a little hiccup. For a comparison, let’s look at Kodai Senga’s last three years in Japan compared to Yamamoto’s last three years in Japan. Senga’s a different pitcher, of course, but the numbers can be useful when considering the level of competition.
Senga (Age 27-29)
2020: 2.20 ERA, 10.9 K/9, 1.176 WHIP
2021: 2.67 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 1.051 WHIP
2022: 1.89 ERA, 9.7 K/9, 1.041 WHIP
Yamamoto (Age 22-24)
2021: 1.39 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 0.847 WHIP
2022: 1.68 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 0.927 WHIP
2023: 1.21 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 0.866 WHIP
Senga, of course, was fantastic for the Mets, one of the few bright spots in this frustrating season. In 28 starts, he had a 2.96 ERA, with 10.8 K/9 and 1.22 ERA.
Now you see why Yamamoto’s up here at No. 2. And that’s before even factoring in his age. At just 25 years old, he’s got several years on most of the other free-agent pitchers.
Top three landing places: Mets, Yankees, Red Sox
3. Aaron Nola, SP
Entering Age 31 season
Why he’s here: Most free-agent lists will likely have Nola a little lower, largely because his 2023 hasn’t been as good as his thoroughly impressive 2022 season. But Nola’s the same age or younger than most of the free-agent starters — he turns 31 next June — and his durability has been impressive. He’s made more starts than anyone since the start of the 2018 season, and he’s only seven innings behind Gerrit Cole for the top spot in that stretch. In an era when starter innings are at a premium, he stands above some of the other SPs on the free-agent market. He was brilliant in his first two playoff starts last year (0 ER in 12 2/3 innings) and struggled in his last three (14 ER in 13 innings). A big showing this October could help mitigate concerns over a so-so regular season.
Top three landing places: Phillies, Cardinals, Red Sox
4. Blake Snell, SP
Entering Age 31 season
Why he’s here: By the time free agency officially opens, Snell just might be a two-time Cy Young winner, and that’s a pretty big feather on a resume. Of course, if he does win the 2023 NL Cy Young — winners are announced after the World Series — he’ll join the small club of Cy winners to also lead their league in walks. Snell has more than a dozen more than his closest competitor. That feels concerning, but maybe it’s not in the moment, considering how good he is at limiting contact. When his raw stuff regresses down the road, it’ll be more of an issue, but for now? Let’s just say coming off a Cy Young season is a good time to enter the free agent market.
Top three landing places: Cardinals, Red Sox, Yankees
5. Josh Hader, RP
Entering Age 30 season
Why he’s here: Hader authored one of the best bounce-back stories of the 2023 season, regaining his status as one of the sport’s elite closers. Hader had a 5.22 ERA for the Brewers and Padres last year, but in 2023, he’s been exceptional, with a 1.19 ERA and 31 saves (in 36 chances). He’s not necessarily Peak Hader again, in that he’s not a multiple-inning guy, and his strikeouts-per-nine are down just a tick. But his K/9 of 13.8 is still outstanding, and his 2.39 FIP says that ERA isn’t an aberration.
Top three landing places: Phillies, Rangers, Padres
6. Cody Bellinger, OF
Entering Age 28 season
Why he’s here: Speaking of bounce-back seasons, Bellinger’s contract with the Cubs has worked out well for both sides. Bellinger got his career back on track with a new franchise — the Dodgers and their fans loved him, but he was in a rut there — and the Cubs got a big bat in their lineup who helped push the franchise toward playoff contention. Technically, there’s a mutual option in his contract for 2024, but no chance Bellinger sticks to that. After a season that included 26 homers, 95 RBIs, 20 stolen bases, a 134 OPS+ and a 4.1 bWAR, there are plenty of teams that would love to make offers. Bellinger could certainly stay in Chicago, but it’ll take a lot more than a one-year-with-an-option deal to make that happen.
Top three landing places: Cubs, Yankees, Rangers
7. Eduardo Rodriguez, SP
Entering Age 31 season
Why he’s here: The Tigers didn’t take the step forward as a franchise this season, but that wasn’t Rodriguez’s fault. In the second year of the 5-year, $77-million deal he signed after the 2021 season, the lefty had a 3.40 ERA in 25 starts. He has an opt-out clause, and he’s sure to exercise it, even if he wants to stay with the Tigers on a new deal. And that’s not impossible; remember, he vetoed a potential trade to the Dodgers this summer, saying he and his family were comfortable in Detroit, with this franchise.
Top three landing places: Tigers, Red Sox, Phillies
8. Matt Chapman, 3B
Entering Age 31 season
Why he’s here: Chapman’s still an elite defensive third baseman. At the plate, though, he’s not what he used to be in his first few years with the A’s, when he finished top-7 in the AL MVP back-to-back years (2018-19). In those two seasons, in addition to his elite glove, Chapman had a .348 on-base percentage and 131 OPS+ while averaging 30 home runs. In his past three years (one with the A’s, two with the Jays), Chapman’s had a .323 on-base percentage and 108 OPS+; he hit 27 homers in 2021 and 2022, but he’s just over half that for Toronto this year. And if you take out his hot start to the season (.384 average, 1.152 OPS through the end of April), his struggles at the plate become more pronounced. Over the last five months of the season, Chapman hit just .205 with a .300 on-base percentage and .653 OPS.
Top three landing places: Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers
9. Sonny Gray, SP
Entering Age 34 season
Why he’s here: Gray won’t land the same length of deals as the pitchers higher on the list — heading into his Age 34 season, he’s older than pretty much everyone — but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him be every bit as good over the next two seasons. Gray is coming off what just might be his best season, with a brilliant 2.80 ERA/2.85 FIP effort, in which he allowed only eight home runs in 180 innings. And talk about consistency; Gray threw at least six full innings 19 times in his 31 starts, while allowing more than three earned runs just three times. If he deals in the playoffs, that could only drive his price tag up.
Top three landing places: Twins, Cardinals, Red Sox
10. Jordan Montgomery, SP
Entering Age 31 season
Why he’s here: In seven of Montgomery’s 10 starts after he was traded to the Rangers, the lefty pitched at least six innings, with two or fewer runs allowed. That included one start with eight shutout innings and two more with seven shutout innings. Those two seven-inning outings? Against teams directly in competition with the Rangers for an AL playoff spot, the Blue Jays and the Mariners. So you’d understand if the Rangers just offer him a blank check to stick around for the next five seasons. But those types of outings are why other teams will want to sign him, too.
Top three landing places: Rangers, Red Sox, Cardinals
