Notre Dame and Louisville will meet in primetime Saturday, in a matchup of Top 25 teams.
The Fighting Irish are ranked No. 10 in the nation, and they are preparing to take on their third consecutive ranked opponent in the Cardinals. Louisville is undefeated so far this season and with a win in this one, could jump up significantly from its current No. 25 ranking.
Notre Dame will be the Cardinals toughest challenge to date and a good measurement of where they stand and what their future entails. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
The ACC is surprisingly competitive this year, and the Cardinals are in a position to compete for the conference down the stretch of the season. If they can get by a battle-tested Fighting Irish team whose only loss is a nail-biter against Ohio State, the Cardinals will announce themselves as quite the threat.
Odds for Notre Dame vs. Louisville: Point spread, moneyline, total
Notre Dame will be the road team in the contest, and is still favored by a little less than a touchdown. However, that number could grow thanks to one of the Cardinals’ biggest woes this year.
Here are the current odds from the top sports betting apps in the US.
Notre Dame is 5-1-0 against the spread. The one time it failed to cover, it was a 35-point favorite and ended up winning by just 24 against Central Michigan. That’s obviously a great record, but what makes it even stronger is who they have covered against – Duke, Ohio State, and Navy. Each of those offenses is at least as good as Louisville’s, if not better.
Louisville on the other hand has failed to cover the spread against its top three opponents, which doesn’t build confidence in its chances in this one. That’s even more so after a letdown performance against the NC State Wolfpack last weekend, in which the Cardinals just escaped the upset by a final score of 13-10.
Notre Dame odds and betting breakdown
Two plays within the last minute of the game against Ohio State are all that separates Notre Dame from an undefeated record and probably a Top 5 ranking. The Irish are complete on both sides of the ball and can win in a multitude of ways. Their biggest strength is avoiding turnovers. Doing so usually helps them win the time of possession battle and subsequently, the game.
Starting QB Sam Hartman hasn’t thrown an interception all season long and star running back Audric Estime only has one fumble on the season. Given the potency of their offense, protecting the ball the way they do gives them a good chance to beat anyone.
If there is one area of concern for the Irish, it’s rushing defense. In back-to-back games now, they have allowed at least 88 yards rushing, including a season-high, 104-yard outburst from Buckeyes’ running back Treveyon Henderson.
Cardinals’ running back Jawhar Jordan is a pivotal part of their offense and is having a great season. In five games, he has compiled 510 yards and six touchdowns. That includes three 100-plus yard rushing games and a 96-yard rushing performance. If he gets going against Notre Dame, that could take pressure off QB Jack Plummer to throw the ball as much, helping him protect the ball. A zero-turnover performance from the Cardinals could spell danger for Notre Dame.
Louisville odds and betting breakdown
The Cardinals are 5-0 this season, but there have been a few close calls for them, leading to a 2-2-1 record against the spread. The biggest cause for this is Plummer’s interception issues. He has thrown at least one in every game so far, including two in their last game against NC State. The Wolfpack are the toughest opponent they have faced this year, and it showed.
Turnovers are a focal point for every team in every game, but that’s especially the case for the Cardinals against Notre Dame. They are the underdogs and are up against a top-10-ranked opponent with explosive offensive capabilities. The Fighting Irish have the personnel to punish Louisville for turnovers in a way no other team it has faced has been able to do.
For the Cardinals to have a chance at the upset, Plummer must protect the ball better than he has all season, meaning no interceptions at all – a feat he only accomplished twice all last year.
Notre Dame vs. Louisville prop picks
Here are a couple prop picks to consider:
- Jawhar Jordan over 78.5 yards (-117): The Wolfpack held Jordan to his worst performance in the season last week, but he is sure to be the focal point of the offense against Notre Dame, who has allowed this number in the last two weeks as their schedule has toughened up.
- Jack Plummer under 239.5 passing yards (-117): The Cardinals are likely to attack Notre Dame on the ground as opposed to through the air. That will cut down on the number of passing attempts Plummer makes in this game. Against a solid passing defense like what the Fighting Irish possess, he isn’t likely to hit his listed number on condensed passing attempts.
Notre Dame vs. Louisville pick ATS
The Cardinals are having a great year, but the Fighting Irish are a notch ahead on both sides of the ball. They are also undefeated in their last 30 regular season games against ACC opponents, which includes a dominant victory earlier this year over NC State, whom Louisville just barely escaped a week ago. There is a glimmer of hope for the Cardinals to steal the victory, but in Plummer’s last 13 starts, he has only avoided throwing interceptions twice.
Relying on him to play clean football doesn’t feel like a reliable wager at this point.
Pick: Notre Dame
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