The super bantamweight division will have an undisputed champion after Naoya Inoue faces Marlon Tapales on December 23. In Japan, the fight airs on ESPN+ in the U.S.
Inoue is a four-division champion that looks to become a two-division undisputed title holder. He would be the fourth fighter to accomplish that, joining Claressa Shields, Terence Crawford, and Katie Taylor. The 30-year-old has yet to be stopped in his career and has been nearly unbeatable since joining Top Rank.
Tapales looks to be the first Filipino undisputed champion at super bantamweight. A former WBO bantamweight champion, Tapales is ready to play spoiler in Inoue’s backyard.
Per Bet MGM, Inoue is the -1400 favorite, while Tapales is the +800 underdog. Like most of Inoue’s opponents, Tapales attempts to defy the odds and break the unbreakable. Can he get the job done, or is an Inoue win guaranteed?
The Sporting News looks at some unique and worthy prop bets which favor “The Monster.”
Prop bets for Naoya Inoue vs. Marlon Tapales
1. Will the fight go the full 12 rounds? (No: -500 per Bet MGM)
Given the heavy-hitting nature of both fighters, it’s fair to assume Inoue-Tapales won’t go the distance.
Tapales’ last fight was a split decision win, his first contest to go the distance since 2014. Inoue hasn’t allowed a fight to go twelve rounds since 2019, when he beat Nonito Donaire in a fight to remember. The knockout artists are bound to make this “blink and you’ll miss it” affair.
It is one of the best bets due to Inoue’s intense nature and volume. He can end the fight early or drag it out until he tires his opponent.
At -500, there isn’t much value. And yet the data on both fighters suggests this is a fairly straight forward play.
2. When will the fight be won? Round 1 Group Betting (+280 Rounds 7-9, per Bet MGM)
Both fighters fight for power, as seen from the previous prop bet. Inoue punishes his opponent with ease. Since joining Top Rank, the length of his fights has varied. Only two haven’t made it out of the third round, while two knockouts landed in the eighth. Paul Butler managed to survive until the eleventh, which is being generous.
Against Aran Dipaen, Inoue kicked things up in the eighth, landing a left hook that took his opponent down. Facing Paul Butler, Inoue landed 16 punches in the sixth, 14 in the seventh, and 19 in the tenth. Against Stephen Fulton, Inoue landed 19 shots in the fifth and sixth, with 13 power punches in the latter round.
When he kicks it into second gear, there is no stopping Inoue. So he could punch out Tapales early or play with his food until pouncing on him in the later rounds. By the time Tapales knows what hit him, literally, it will be all over.
3. Method of Victory (-500 Inoue via KO/TKO, per Bet MGM)
The previous prop bets have focused on Inoue’s power. It is hard not to when the Japanese megastar has 22 wins via knockout and has won six contests in a row via KO.
It won’t matter what round Inoue wins it in. With a total connect percentage of 34.5% and ranked third (within the pound-for-pound list) with 23.1 average total punches landed (averaging 66.9 punches thrown), an Inoue win via knockout, like “The Mad Titan” Thanos, seems inevitable.
Tapales has only been beaten twice via knockout, but the Filipino hasn’t gotten matched with someone like Inoue. Inoue bashing his opponent has become a tradition, which doesn’t appear to be going away soon.
