The Minnesota Vikings need to pick a quarterback early in the 2024 NFL Draft. Beyond USC’s Caleb Williams going to the NFC North rival Bears at No. 1 overall, they have a shot at landing any of the other top first-round QB prospects.
The Vikings are sitting with the No. 11 and No. 23 picks, giving them the potential to make an aggressive trade-up to take their passer of choice. By packaging both picks, they could even get as high as No. 2 or No. 3 overall.
Minnesota is almost expected to make some kind of move so it can land at least Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy in Round 1, if not LSU’s Jayden Daniels or North Carolina’s Drake Maye. But before GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah executes that deal to deliver offensive-minded coach Kevin O’Connell his new franchise QB, let’s hope he’s considered some recent draft history.
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Should Vikings trade into the top three in the 2024 NFL Draft?
The Vikings certainly could buck a negative trend by hitting on the right QB, but there’s a case to be made that trading up significantly for a QB is adding further big risk to an already volatile position selection. The proof is the drafts from 2016-23, the bust or disappointment factors on such traded-for QBs have been, as a whole, greater than the rewards.
Just look at last year. The Panthers may have made a massive mistake going all-in to jump up from No. 9 and nab Bryce Young at No. 1.
In 2021, the 49ers went from No. 12 all the way to No. 3 for Trey Lance. In 2018, the Jets upgraded from No. 6 to No. 3 for Sam Darnold. In 2017, the Bears sent plenty to the 49ers just to move up one spot to No. 2 for Mitchell Trubisky.
There were some better results in 2016 when the Rams traded up to No. 1 for Jared Goff and the Eagles got to No. 2 for Carson Wentz, but the latter had short-lived success. Other than Young, none of those above QBs remain on the teams that drafted them, and only Goff is still a starter elsewhere.
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A number of variables can contribute to such trades-up not panning out, from those moves hampering teams from providing enough additional draft help to the potential of putting undue “franchise savior” pressure on the targeted passers.
Also, teams tend to make massive trade-ups more for the ceiling of a quarterback rather than his floor. Booms can just as easily be busts. That was the definite case with Lance and Trubisky.
A team also can move up out of panic, which rarely ends well.
Every year and every prospect is different. The Vikings have a smart braintrust and should feel confident they will make the right QB choice. They can find the happy medium between getting in position to draft and develop the QB they want vs. getting too risky in going after Daniels or Maye
McCarthy represents that. Should Daniels and Maye go No. 2 and No. 3 behind Williams, the Vikings would just need to stay ahead of the Giants at No. 6 to end up with McCarthy. The Chargers, with multiple offensive needs early, would be the ideal trade partner at No. 5, assuming the Cardinals keep No. 4 to get Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
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It would be nice for the Vikings to know whether the Giants will eschew QB in the first round. The Broncos or Raiders could also be competition for McCarthy, but they pick No. 12 and No. 13, respectively, after the Vikings and don’t have the same capital with which to move up too high.
The Vikings are positioned well from every perspective to land the fourth QB off the board, with McCarthy being the consensus. “Trader beware” just says moving into the top three to get him is not worth it.
