It’s a relegation ‘Groundhog Day’ for Leeds United, who once again find themselves battling to avoid dropping out of the English top-flight this season.
Leeds secured an incredible final day survival act during the 2021/22 campaign under American manager Jesse Marsch, thanks to a 2-1 win away at Brentford.
The club is back in a relegation scrap in 2022/23, and after Marsch was sacked in February, former Watford head coach Javi Gracia was brought on a short-term deal in an attempt to repeat the feat from a year ago.
Gracia was sacked three months into his tenure, with Premier League managerial veteran Sam Allardyce brought in.
With just one game remaining, Everton (17th – 33 points), Leeds (18th – 31 points) and Leicester (19th – 30 points) all remain in danger. Leicester have two games left to play though.
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“OHHH JACK HARRISON!” ⚽⚡
LEEDS UNITED ARE STAYING UP! AND JUST LOOK WHAT IT MEANS!! ⚪ pic.twitter.com/THvTkJbrI7
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) May 22, 2022
Leeds United’s remaining Premier League fixtures 2022/23
Leeds have one Premier League game remaining to try and muster enough points to avoid Premier League relegation, but the task ahead looks difficult for Allardyce and his players.
May 28 vs Tottenham (Home)
Despite Tottenham’s strength on paper, the ongoing chaos at Spurs will give Leeds hope on the final day, with the visitors already onto their third manager this season.
A last-day win at Brentford saved the day in 2022/23, but the tight nature of the race to avoid relegation means Leeds need all three points in their last match to avoid slipping through the trap door.
They also need Everton to lose at home to Bournemouth on the final day.
Leeds United Premier League relegation odds
According to projections by FiveThirtyEight, Leeds are the most likely team to be relegated at 92 percent.
The current picture has them joining Southampton and Leicester City in dropping out of the Premier League, with Everton narrowly escaping the drop.
Leeds need to find a way to win and hope the other teams around them continue to drop points.
Premier League table: The Bottom 4
*Standings correct as of May 21, 2023
If there were no changes from the current table, Leicester and Leeds United would go down with Saints and Everton would survive by the skin of their teeth.
| Pos | Team | Points | Matches Played |
Goals Scored |
Goal Difference |
Next Match | Relegation Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17. | Everton | 33 | 37 | 33 | -24 | vs. BOU, May 28 | 24% |
| 18. | Leeds United | 31 | 37 | 47 | -27 | vs. TOT, May 28 | 92% |
| 19. | Leicester City | 30 | 36 | 49 | -18 | @ NEW, May 22 | 84% |
| 20. | Southampton – R | 24 | 37 | 32 | -37 | vs. LIV, May 28 | 100% |
Premier League latest relegation odds 2022/23
Here are the latest relegation odds available at the various sports books around the world.
*Odds updated as of May 21, 2023.
| USA (BetMGM) |
UK (Sky Bet) |
Australia (Neds) |
|
| Leeds United | -2000 | 1/20 | 1.05 |
| Leicester City | -1000 | 1/10 | 1.10 |
| Everton | +300 | +333 | 4.33 |
Relegation probabilities
ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight also projects the relegation probability for each club on a week-to-week basis, with Leeds on a steady downward slope.
Here’s how each team has been tracking since early April.
| May 21 | May 14 | May 6 | April 30 | April 27 | April 5 | |
| Everton | 24% | 31% | 63% | 66% | 75% | 37% |
| Nott’m Forest | — | 32% | 49% | 54% | 56% | 65% |
| Leeds | 92% | 67% | 60% | 57% | 40% | 10% |
| Leicester | 84% | 70% | 29% | 24% | 31% | 30% |
