Whether it be sportsbooks, the media, or baseball fans in general, it just keeps happening: We continue to underrate and overlook the dominance of Yankees slugger Aaron Judge.
At this time last year, Judge had already cranked 21 of his AL single-season record 62 home runs. He had 30 bombs by July 8, when my colleague and Sporting News MLB editor Jason Foster wrote that “Shohei Ohtani is the 2022 AL MVP until further notice, and it’s foolish to pretend otherwise.”
Humble brag: yours truly was among the media minority that viewed Judge as the best MVP bet at that point. “All rise, bettors,” I wrote. “Aaron Judge remains the best bet to be crowned the 2022 American League Most Valuable Player.
Of course, many argue that Ohtani would have prevailed if not for Judge shattering historic records for the most decorated baseball club in MLB history. But his across-the-board offensive dominance made it difficult for any voter to argue against voting him No. 1 by the end of the ’22 campaign. Take a look at Judge’s final stats and MLB rankings following last season (italic indicates he lead the majors — bold indicates he led the AL):
| HR | RBI | R | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | SB | WAR |
| 62 | 131 | 133 | 111 | .311 | .425 | .686 | 1.111 | 16 | 10.6 |
All-out dominance. And sure, Ohtani was great both on the mound and in the batter’s box. But he wasn’t shattering records, leading the big-leagues in six major stat categories, and pacing the world in WAR (shout-out to the sabermetrics nerds!). Judge earned his MVP, from the start of his power surge in late April to his record-breaking final home run trot on Game No. 162 of the season. Oh, and did we mention that he led the Yanks to 99 wins and an AL divisional crown?
Still, all that seems to be ancient history for many writers, fans, bettors, and sportsbooks this season. Ohtani is listed on BetMGM as a -145 favorite to win AL MVP, while Judge sits second on the odds board at +500. FanDuel has Judge listed with even longer odds (+550), and even has a prop on the board that gives Ohtani -146 odds to win, and the field +114 odds. Do not adjust your screen resolution — you read that right. It literally says:
Shohei Ohtani wins 2023 AL MVP: -146
Any other player wins 2023 AL MVP: +114.
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What in the world is happening!? Are we anticipating voter fatigue after Judge pulled down one MVP trophy!? Are the Ohtani fanatics that gung ho to deliver their man his second MVP? Listing him at -146 gives him an implied winning probability of nearly 60 percent — and there’s nearly four months of regular-season baseball left to play!
The craziest part: Judge is arguably off to a better statistical start to the season than he got off to in 2022. Despite missing 11 games due to a hip injury, the Yankees captain leads the AL in homers (19) and leads the majors in slugging (.674) and OPS (1.078). His current road OPS of 1.365 is the second-highest since 1901, trailing only Barry Bonds in 2002.
Folks, we’re not saying Ohtani is not amazing. As a pitcher, he’s 5-2 with a 3.30 ERA, 1.014 WHIP, MLB-low 5.5 hits allowed per nine, and AL-leading 12.2 K/9. As a hitter, he has 15 homers, 40 RBIs, and seven steals. His slash line is .274/.348/.540. If you’re simply measuring by how much total impact each player has on their team, Ohtani takes the cake until Judge can learn how to pitch at the big-league level.
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But we’re giving Judge way more of a chance at going back-to-back than oddsmakers have been. There are a number of different hypotheticals that we think would help him emerge victorious once again this year:
- If Judge finishes the season as the MLB leader in a handful of categories once again and/or breaks records
- If the Yankees finish first in the best division in baseball once again
- If Judge continues to field his position at a Gold Glove-caliber level
- If Ohtani doesn’t finish with the league lead in any individual category and the Angels don’t make the playoffs
Since coming back from his hip injury, Judge has been scorching both at the plate and in the field and the Yankees are winning again. They were 19-17 on the final day of his brief IL stint — they’re 35-25 now, just one win away from the Orioles and five behind the MLB-best Rays. The Angels, it should be noted, are 30-30 and fourth in the AL West.
Judge has hit 13 home runs in the 23 games since he returned from the hip injury. But he has also put together quite the defensive highlight reel during that timeframe. Most recently, he made a brilliant ranging catch at Dodger Stadium and proceeded to crash through the bullpen door. That same game, he cracked his fifth home run in a six-day span. Simply incredible.
You can go with the chalk and bet Ohtani at -145 to win AL MVP if you want, but remember what a healthy Judge did last summer. Every part of this dude’s game screams MVP, and he would be -300 to win the award if Shohei Ohtani didn’t exist. If Ohtani falters at any point on the mound or at the plate, Judge will storm past him like a Tesla against a Corvette. We’re taking the value with Judge at +550 now, as his odds probably won’t be longer at any point in the remainder of the season.
