Two of the game’s most dynamic and efficient offenses and quarterbacks face off Saturday afternoon in a barn that barely holds 25,000 spectators.
We’d wager that Bridgeforth Stadium will be busting at its seams for Appalachian State vs. James Madison, in what could be college football’s most entertaining game of the week. Fortunately, it’ll be shown to a national TV audience, on ESPN+, at 2 p.m. ET.
Of late, both are operating at a top-15 level, as App State’s points-per-play margin over its past three games is a slick 0.331, No. 12 in the game; James Madison (0.301) is 15th.
The Dukes, of course, are riding high as the 18th-ranked squad in the land, so they’re hardly unknown. They are 10-0 overall and 6-0 in the East Division of the Sun Belt Conference.
Normally, they’d be bearing down on Troy (8-2, 5-1) in the West for a conference title-game joust. However, since this is Madison’s second season in shifting to FBS status, it is ineligible to play for its league crown or in a bowl.
School brass sent a letter to the NCAA last week asking for full postseason eligibility. An undefeated season, still to be determined, might land the Dukes in a prestigious New Year’s Six bowl game, save for the two-year ineligibility clause. The NCAA declined a previous appeal.
But our look at App State vs. James Madison odds, props and predictions is more concerned with what happens on the field than in a board room.
Appalachian State vs. James Madison odds: Point spread, moneyline, total
Here are the latest college football betting odds for the Mountaineers vs. Dukes:
App State is on a three-game winning streak, having covered the past two. Jim Madison has covered seven of its past eight, and five of its past seven have sailed over their totals.
Last year, Madison won, 32-28, at App State. As FCS foes in ’08, App lost, 35-32, at Madison. Those help diagnose this one, as we don’t favor giving double digits with James Madison. We do see both tallying at least 30 points.
App State betting news: Mountaineers soar in the air and on the ground
A victory by App State (6-4, 4-2) could keep pace with Coastal Carolina (7-3, 5-2) in the East. Coastal beat App, 27-24, on Oct. 10. The Dukes play host to Georgia Southern next week, while Coastal plays host to Army this weekend and caps its regular season at home against James Madison.
Joey Aguilar is the 6-foot-3, 220-pound junior quarterback from the East Bay in Northern California who played two seasons at Diablo Valley College. No, I didn’t set out to highlight him because we both have DVC on our résumés.
He is an excellent slinger whose three touchdown passes, including scoring tosses of 44 (to Makai Jackson) and 77 yards (Dalton Stroman), gave App State a 21-0 lead last week at Georgia State.
And the Mountaineers still tallied 254 rushing yards, with the help of Nate Noel (86 yards, 1 TD) and Kanye Roberts (77 yards, 1 TD). As proficient as App’s aerial attack is with Aguilar, it’s average rushing yardage of 192 ranks 18th in the country. Noel (766 yards, 5 TDs) and Roberts (484, 4) are the ground hogs. Aguilar has run it in twice, but he’s also fumbled seven times.
Aguilar has 2,657 aerial yards, with 26 TDs and seven picks, on the season. Kaedin Robinson (541 receiving yards, 6 TDs) and Christian Horn (456, 5) are Aguilar’s main targets, and Jackson averages 21.2 yards per catch.
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No. 18 James Madison betting news: five of the past seven Dukes games have sailed Over their totals
We respect what App State can muster on offense, but we’re hesitant to side with it, either by taking the points or considering a moneyline upset, due to the Dukes’ ferocious defense.
In that unit, we highlight Jalen Green (No. 1 in the nation with 21 tackles for loss and 15.5 quarterback sacks), Jamree Kromah (tied for second with 19 TFL, tied for ninth with 9 sacks) and Mikail Kamara (17 TFL, tied for sixth).
That’s three of the country’s top 10 line disruptors. Green, a 6-2, 245-pound senior, aptly mans Madison’s “Stud” position. Kromah is a 6-4, 265-pound senior defensive tackle who started his collegiate career at Rutgers, while Kamara is a 6-foot, 272-pound sophomore end.
App State has an offensive line rated 31st in the game by Phil Steele, in his comprehensive annual, and the Mountaineers will require all of that expertise and skill to deal with that trio.
Junior quarterback Jordan McCloud, who has had stints at South Florida and Arizona, went a blistering 33-for-37, for 457 yards, four TDs and no interceptions, last week in torching UConn, 44-6. In his past three, he has 11 TD passes, three picks and three rushing scores.
Fifth-year Dukes boss Curt Cignetti, a former West Virginia quarterback, is 14-7 against the spread in two FBS seasons.
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App State vs. James Madison prop odds
If you are looking to move the spread to something more favorable, DraftKings is offering alternative lines for the App State vs. James Madison. Here’s a sampling of what’s available:
- James Madison -6.5 (-181); App State +6.5 (+135)
- James Madison -7.5 (-146); App State +7.5 (+110)
- James Madison -13.5 (+117); App State +13.5 (-155)
- James Madison -14.5 (+135); App State +14.5 (-183)
Appalachian State vs. James Madison prediction
This is one of three tilts this weekend that features two top-20 quarterbacks, in QB Rating. McCloud (172.6) is sixth, Aguilar (159.9) 16th. The other two are Oregon State (DJ Uiagalelei, 18th) vs Washington (Michael Penix, 9th), and Florida (Graham Mertz, 19th) vs Missouri (Brady Cook, 15th).
The Dukes are at home and sport a defensive edge, but to off-set any App State hijinks we opt for likely fireworks. Both average nearly 34 points, among the top 21 offenses in D-I football, and both have been even hotter (Madison 38.7, App 40.3) over their past three games.
Pick: OVER 55.5 (Current best odds: )
