Happy Hump Day, NBA hoops fans and bettors! Welcome to NBA Prop-A-Shot, the Sporting News’ weekly live betting blog that brings you all the best wagering advice before, during, and after the biggest games of the Wednesday night slate. We’re specifically covering three marquee games: Bucks vs. Cavaliers, Mavericks vs. Suns, and Spurs vs. Thunder.
Talk about a surplus of star power: Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo fresh off Milwaukee’s coaching change, Donovan Mitchell and the Cavs firing on all cylinders, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving squaring off with Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and the rival Suns, Rookie of the Year candidates Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren, and of course, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on a quest for his 32nd 30-point game. Woo!
That’s the rundown of just some of the players we’ll be talking about and betting on today and tonight. Now, let’s go into a little more detail about how all this works:
- On Wednesday morning and throughout the day, we share our top prop bets and hand-picked wagers for the marquee games of the night.
- During the live window, we’ll follow our picks, surface any noteworthy lines, AND detail the angles and opportunities we look for in the live betting market.
- At the end of the night, we will follow up on each bet, discuss which of our wagers hit and which missed, and go over any major storylines or surprising developments in the NBA that may have shaken up the betting world.
This is a great chance for you to uncover new wagering strategies before and during NBA games, and see what kind of interesting moneyline, spread, and over/under developments take place throughout the night. Whether you’re thinking about dabbling in betting for the first time or you’re a seasoned bettor looking to sharpen your edge, we’ve got you covered so you can bet like an analyst!
Six weeks into our Prop-A-Shot series, our Wednesday best bets have gone 43-30. That’s a .589 winning percentage. The season is still young, and there’s plenty more money for us to make — so let’s dive back in and tip things off for Prop-A-Shot #6!
Remember to check back throughout the day for more picks, and then join us this evening at 8:00 p.m. ET for updates, live value betting opportunities, and all the betting results as the games conclude.
Updates, live betting advice and picks
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Bucks vs. Cavaliers (8:00 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass)
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Mavericks vs. Suns (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
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Spurs vs. Thunder (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
All times are ET. All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
7:40 p.m.: A half an hour ahead of the Bucks-Cavaliers game, Milwaukee has jumped up to -6.5 home favorites. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and the Bucks also have the third-shortest odds to win the 2024 NBA Finals. As much as we believe in teams — and especially stars — being extra motivated after their franchises make coaching changes, this sure seems like a lot of points. Cleveland has won eight of its past 10 games and Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Jarrett Allen won’t be down with getting punked on national television by the most widely-discussed NBA team over the past 24 hours. Take the Cavs to cover the +6.5.
7:46: About 50 minutes before the Suns and Mavericks tip off in the Valley, Phoenix has bumped up to -2.5 favorites. We like the home squad here, as Kevin Durant has been playing some of the best overall basketball in the Association over the past month. Dallas has nobody to guard KD, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal — never mind corral Jusuf Nurkic down low and contain Grayson Allen outside the three-point arc. The Suns -2.5 or -135 both seem like solid value.
7:50: We’re a little under two hours away from the jump in San Antonio, and Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs are now getting a whopping 8.5 points against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Western Conference-leading OKC Thunder. That’s a ton of points to give a scrappy home squad coached by Gregg Popovich. Remember that Wemby just dropped 33 points against the 76ers, a performance largely overshadowed by Joel Embiid and his incredible 70-spot on Monday. Buy San Antonio two more points and bet the Spurs +10.5 at -140.
8:23: Well after the halfway point of the first quarter, the Bucks lead the Cavaliers 17-14. We told you these Cavs would be scrappy! And Milwaukee looks as lost as usual on defense — for example, they just left Donovan Mitchell wide open for an easy three. Jarrett Allen missed five straight shots and Cleveland is still right in this thing. If you haven’t already bet the Cavs, jump on them +7.5 (-105) on the live market.
8:35: The Cavs just finished the first quarter strong, closing the game to 32-28 in a high-scoring battle. Cleveland is taking it to Milwaukee, exposing the Bucks’ poor ability to switch and help on D. Cleveland also seems confident down low, punching home a couple strong dunks down low. Giannis finished the first frame with just six points, and his scoring over/under has now dipped to 29.5 with some juice (-130). We would jump all over that, especially in a game that looks like it will be close and high-scoring.
8:39: With the Mavs about to tip against the Suns, Luka is a go despite back soreness but Kyrie Irving can’t suit up. Doncic’s scoring over/under have skyrocketed in both odds and juice, and we would shy away from anything over 25 at this point. If Phoenix races out to a big second-half lead — or doubles Luka early and often, forcing him to create for others — the millions of Doncic OVER bettors could be heartbroken.
8:47: The Mavs are taking it to the Suns, and Grant Williams is already starting some stuff with Kevin Durant and Jusuf Nurkic. The former Celtics “agitator” knows how to get under stars’ skin, and so far tonight he has backed it up with strong offensive play. It’s 12-5 Dallas — we see some value in the Suns’ updated +115 moneyline and, whenever KD’s scoring over/under goes back up, we might bet his OVER. He has 0 points through four minutes — that won’t last much longer now that G-Dub has poked the Bear. KD scored 40-plus in each of Phoenix’s past two games.
8:55: The scrappy Cavs have put together an 8-2 run on the Bucks, who play just about the worst transition defense in the NBA (that’s why Indiana has given them problems this season). It’s 54-49 Milwaukee. Even though they have led the whole game, we would be shocked if the Bucks covered their -6.5 pregame (and current) spread.
9:05: It’s 61-51 Bucks at the half. I guess we have to pump the brakes on backing Cleveland with the points, even though the +9.5 at -110 is pretty tempting right now. Giannis has 15 at intermission, so we’re glad we jumped on his live OVER of 29.5 points. Dude doesn’t stay down.
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Bucks vs. Cavaliers — 8:00 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Who knows why Milwaukee fired Adrian Griffin when the Bucks sit second in the East with a 30-13 record? Giannis probably knows. The two-time MVP apparently played a crucial role in Griffin’s initial offseason hiring, largely because Antetokounmpo didn’t like Nick Nurse as a candidate. Does anybody truly think Griffin would have been canned if Giannis didn’t want him gone?
So, Giannis probably got his way — again — meaning the big man should be even more motivated than usual this evening. He has dropped 31 points in two straight games, bringing his per-game average in January to 31.9. That’s small potatoes compared to the 32.5 PPG he averaged in December, never mind the 44.2 PPG that reigning MVP Joel Embiid has averaged over his past five games.
MORE: Why the Bucks hired Doc Rivers as Adrian Griffin’s replacement
Giannis has always been intrinsically aware of what he needs to do to boost his legacy. Right now, he knows he must continue scoring in bunches to keep up with JoJo, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Nikola Jokic. This might be one of the more wide-open MVP races we have ever seen at the halfway point of the season.
Expect the Greek Freak to be full throttle from the jump to the final whistle this evening against a red-hot Cavs team that has won eight of its past 10. Without injured big man Evan Mobley, Cleveland can’t contain a hungry Giannis.
Other Bucks-Cavs bets we like: Damian Lillard OVER 33.5 points + assists (-110); Donovan Mitchell UNDER 39.5 points + assists (-120); Brook Lopez OVER 2.5 blocks (-115); Malik Beasley OVER 2.5 three-pointers (-135); Jarrett Allen UNDER 14.5 points (-105); Isaac Okoro OVER 0.5 steals (-120)
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Mavericks vs. Suns — 8:30 p.m., ABC
Another game, another legit MVP candidate, and another guy who knows the heat of the MVP race has risen over the past week. Luka Legend continues to defy the odds of reason, averaging 33.6 PPG while shooting 48.2 percent from the floor and 37.4 from three-point land. Now he plays on national television against arch-rival Devin Booker and the Suns? Oh yeah — as the kids say, ‘Luka’s finna go off.’
The last time these teams met, Doncic dropped a 50-piece on the Suns. He dropped 33, 35, and 34 on Phoenix last season. And with Kevin Durant playing MVP-level ball of his right now, we expect this one to be just as close as the 1.5-point spread (in Phoenix’s favor) suggests. Smash the OVER and root for the points.
MORE: Breaking down the rivalry between Luka Doncic and Devin Booker
The rookie has pulled down 31 boards in the three games since he came back from ankle injury, and he’s the Mavericks’ only chance to battle Jusuf Nurkic, Kevin Durant, and the Suns on the interior.
Lively also has a good rapport with Luka and Kyrie Irving, both as a pick-and-roll partner and a lob presence. Those vital roles almost guarantee him heavy minutes tonight in what should be a close game, so we’re confidently betting the high-value OVER here at -130.
Other Mavericks-Suns props we like: Kevin Durant OVER 29.5 points (-110); Jusuf Nurkic double-double (+105); Bradley Beal OVER 1.5 turnovers (-140); Total UNDER 240.5 (-110)
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Spurs vs. Thunder — 9:30 p.m., ESPN
The Rookie of the Year race has never been tighter, with Wemby a slight favorite at -120 but Chet Holmgren right on his tail at +100. It’s a pick’em, so this game could go a long way to helping one of the giant first-year talents stand out over the other.
MORE: Stats to know in the Wemby vs. Chet Rookie of the Year race
Wembanyama would also like to make headlines of his own after his 33-point, seven-rebound, two-block effort on Monday night against the Sixers got completely overshadowed by Joel Embiid’s 70 points, 18 rebounds, and five assists. JoJo shot 24-of-41 on the night (and 21-of-23 from the line!), and Wemby was the one guarding him for much of the onslaught.
If you prefer just a single-player prop, not a combo or double-double prop, go for Wemby OVER 22.5 points (-115). We might see the 19-year-old French phenom at his most motivated — and if he can drop 33 on Embiid and the Sixers, he should be able to put 23 on Chet and OKC at home.
Other Spurs-Thunder props we like: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 33.5 points (-110); Wemby OVER 2.5 blocks (-150); Chet Holmgren OVER 7.5 rebounds (-110)
Be sure to check in throughout the day for more props, updated lines, and up-to-the-minute news and storylines as they break. And join us from 8:00 p.m. ET until the end of the Spurs-Thunder game. We’ll be dropping live betting advice all night, looking to help you boost your bankroll and surge toward the weekend in style.
