A triple play is usually turned based on extraordinarily bad luck or timing. This was just extraordinarily bad baserunning.
Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas, batting with no one out in the bottom of the third against the Braves, lifted a fly ball to shallow center field. Atlanta’s Michael Harris made the catch, fired on to first to get Adam Duvall, who had strayed too far from the bag.
But the play wasn’t done yet. First baseman Matt Olson noticed left fielder Masataka Yoshida trying to advance to third and fired it over to get the third out of the frame.
The first mistake was in Duvall. It was a bit of a difficult read, admittedly, as Harris had a long way to go to make the catch in shallow right-center.
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But Harris certainly began to have a beat on the ball before too long, and yet Duvall continued to advance to second before making he late realization Harris would be catching the flyout. Harris then easily threw him out trying to get to back to first. Baseball Savant gave the flyball an expected batting average of .230.
Yoshida is where the biggest mistake is made. He inexplicably made the decision to retreat to second, tag the base and advance to third as the ball was thrown to Olson. The Gold Glove first baseman looked up and fired a strong throw to Austin Riley at third, who caught the ball off a bounce with Yoshida still several feet away from the base for the easy triple play.
One of the first rules baseball players learn is to never make the first or third out of the inning at third base. With Yoshida’s speed, he’s likely scoring from second on a single to the outfield. And with two outs, a sacrifice fly is already off the table, as is scoring on a groundout. That extra 90 feet ultimately would have meant very little to the Red Sox scoring chances.
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According to Tango Tiger, from 2010-15, the chance a runner scores from second with two outs is 21.6 percent. The chance a runner scores from third with two outs is just 25.7 percent chance. Three outs and no one on? Well, that’s obviously a zero.
An 8-3-5 triple play might seem like a unique outcome — and it is to most eras of baseball. But in the long history of professional baseball, there is one previous instance of this occurring. That requires turning the history books back to June 7, 1884, per SABR, when the Boston Beaneaters (who would become the Braves) turned an 8-3-5 triple play against the Providence Grays.
This is only the second 8-3-5 triple play in AL/NL history! The first was turned on June 7, 1884, by the Boston Beaneaters (forerunners to today’s @Braves) against @OldHossRadbourn’s Providence Grays. https://t.co/muHvEEQauP #SABR https://t.co/uhuazBabJ3
— SABR (@sabr) July 26, 2023
The Red Sox have been a surprise contender in 2023, posting a 53-47 record entering play on Tuesday. They sat eight games back of the Orioles in the AL East and 2.5 games back of a wild card before Tuesday’s games.
But the team has also made plenty of odd mistakes throughout the season — like the one against the Braves — that certainly have called into question whether this team would be a legitimate threat should it reach the postseason.
