The next wave of college football realignment is coming.
Florida State on Wednesday represented a rumbling of sorts as it sent a warning shot to the ACC, threatening defection from the conference. But that’s only a small portion of the next seismic shift in the college athletic landscape.
Arizona could be the next domino to fall in the Pac-12 — Colorado was the first — which could prompt its fellow “Four Corners” schools — Arizona State and Utah — to follow along. That wouldn’t represent a death blow to the Pac-12, though it could serve as a devastating wound that allows further predation.
That in turn has forced the Big Ten to acknowledge it is considering further expansion candidates from the Pacific Coast, after already luring USC and UCLA to the conference ahead of the 2022 college football season.
DECOURCY: UConn must decide whether winning big is worth Big 12 money
It’s a rapidly evolving situation that has to this point affected four of college football’s so-called “Power 5” conferences. The SEC is the only such grouping that isn’t (publicly) dealing with the topic, though it’s possible several ACC teams may consider a jump to the neighboring conference — as evidenced by FSU’s willingness to speak out against its current conference.
With that, here are all the latest college football realignment rumors:
College football realignment rumors
Florida State
Wednesday, Aug. 2
Florida State held a board of trustees meeting on Wednesday to discuss a potential exit strategy from the ACC, of which it has been a member institution since 1992.
University president Richard McCullough gave an update to Board of Trustee members on Wednesday, saying the school will have to “very seriously” consider leaving the conference if the ACC does not update its revenue distribution model.
McCullough told ESPN separately that he is “not that optimistic” the Seminoles will stay in the ACC.
“At some point, we’re going to have to do something,” McCullough told ESPN. “I’m not that optimistic that we’ll be able to stay. I just don’t know that. It could occur, but something radically different is going to have to happen. All options remain on the table.”
The university’s board members were more than willing to speak about their frustrations with the ACC’s current revenue distribution model, which is lagging behind frontrunners in the Big Ten and SEC. That frustration has reached a boiling point, with former quarterback and current board member Drew Weatherford saying, “It’s not a matter of if we leave, but how and when we leave” (via Brett McMurphy).
DECOURCY: ACC schools have nowhere to go and no way to get there
The conference has a deal in place through 2036 that, McCullough estimated, would see its member institutions make $30 million less than those in the Big Ten and SEC, which announced multi-billion TV deals in recent years. The ACC’s current model rewards on-field success, though McCullough wants the ACC to revamp the model to reward teams with higher TV ratings and marketability.
“Our goal would be to continue to stay in the ACC, but staying in the ACC under the current situation is hard for us to figure out how we remain competitive unless there were a major change in the revenue distribution within the conference,” McCullough said (via ESPN). “That has not happened. Those discussions are ongoing at all times.
“FSU helps to drive value and will drive value for any partner, but we have spent a year trying to understand how we might fix the issue. There are no easy fixes to this challenge, but a group of us have spent literally a year. We’ve explored every possible option that you can imagine. The issue at hand is what can we do to allow ourselves to be competitive in football and get what I think is the revenue we deserve.”
One potential obstacle to that is a $120 million exit fee on top of the ACC’s (seemingly ironclad) grant of rights that would also have to be bought out from the conference. FSU athletic director Michael Alford told ESPN earlier Wednesday that the school had been looking at the ACC’s grant of rights document and how it may be challenged legally.
“We have a great understanding of what opportunities there are in that document. How that document could hold us back, but also what the opportunities are,” Alford said. “So this is going to be a discussion. We’ll keep getting legal advice. Our legal team has a good understanding of that document.”
BENDER: Will Oregon, Washington leave Pac-12 for Big Ten?
Big Ten expansion
Tuesday, Aug. 1
Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti on Tuesday issued a statement saying the conference is focused on integrating USC and UCLA into the conference for the 2024 season. He also acknowledged the Big Ten is monitoring the situation in the Pac-12, suggesting imminent expansion is a possibility (via ESPN’s Pete Thamel):
Big Ten comment on exploring expansion: “Big Ten Conference is still focused on integration of USC and UCLA but it’s also commissioner’s job to keep conference chancellors and presidents informed about new developments as they occur.”
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) August 2, 2023
Yahoo Sports’ Dan Wetzel reports the Big Ten does not want to be “predatory” despite doing its due diligence on potential expansion targets. If the Big Ten adds two more teams, Washington and Oregon would be its targets; if the conference wants to expand to 20 teams, then Stanford and Cal would also be considerations.
Thursday, Aug. 3
Thamel reported Thursday that the Big Ten presidents have authorized Petitti to “explore expansion and bring them back more information on Oregon and Washington as potential Big Ten members,” though no offers have been made.
Wheels do appear to be in motion, however. Mike Vorel of the Seattle Times reported the Washington Board of Regents has scheduled a “special meeting” for 9 p.m. PT Thursday, which will include an executive session. Vorel said he does not expect any action to be taken at the meeting.
Brett McMurphy of the Action Network noted that Big Ten officials met separately with Oregon and Washington representatives last year, so it’s not as if they would be starting from scratch in the vetting process.
Friendly reminder: Big Ten “cleared & vetted” Oregon & Washington as B1G members if it makes financial sense, @ActionNetworkHQ reported last year. Last August, Oregon & B1G met in Chicago, UW & B1G met in New York. They are set to go – if B1G & network partners figure out money
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) August 3, 2023
Thamel further reported on Thursday that any expansion by the Big Ten will not affect Notre Dame’s stance on independence moving forward. The Fighting Irish remain the top “uncommitted” program ahead of realignment but make the most geographic sense for the Big Ten.
Sources: Any potential changes in the Big Ten are not expected to impact Notre Dame’s view on independence.
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) August 3, 2023
The Associated Press reported on Thursday that the Big Ten presented the “framework of a deal” to Oregon and Washington. Russo cited a source who spoke on the condition of anonymity because no formal offer has been extended.
The deal, as reported by Russo, would have the Ducks and Huskies make an annual average in the low-to-mid $30 millions. They could receive an advance on future payments to make more than $40 million for the first several years, though the money would be subtracted from future payments.
Either way, it would be less than what full members make under the Big Ten’s new deal — and still would be more per school than the Pac-12’s streaming-based deal with Apple, which has yet to be approved. Oregon and Washington presumably would make the same when the Big Ten negotiates a new deal after the 2019 season.
Anyone hoping for action tonight on behalf of Washington’s Board of Regents meeting will be disappointed. The meeting went straight into executive session but, as noted by The Athletic’s Nicole Auerbach, no decision is expected to be made:
University of Washington board of regents meeting (which will be an executive session) opens with a comment that no action will be taken during this meeting.
— Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) August 4, 2023
MORE: Is Arizona leaving Pac-12 for the Big 12?
Arizona
Monday, July 31
The University of Arizona on Monday held a Board of Regents meeting that quickly went into executive session. The meeting came one day before Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff presented a media deal in place to conference presidents and athletic directors; no deal was agreed on, with multiple reports indicating it was a tier-based streaming subscription model from Apple TV+.
According to a report from Jason Scheer of Wildcat Authority, Wildcats football coach Jedd Fisch held a Zoom meeting with the parents of players, telling them he “would not take a bad deal” and that the school will shortly know where it will stand soon.
Jedd Fisch held a Zoom call with the parents of every player and told them Arizona will not take a bad deal and will know where they will be soon.
This is basically a realignment press conference at this point and I haven’t asked one of the questions.
— Jason Scheer (@jasonscheer) August 1, 2023
If Arizona does leave for the Big 12 — the Wildcats are a basketball power that would elevate the conference’s standing in the sport — it’s believed fellow “Four Corner” schools Arizona State and Utah would follow suit.
Wednesday, Aug. 2
The Arizona Board of Regents — which oversees both Arizona State and the University of Arizona — announced an executive session for Thursday. Per Ross Dellenger of Yahoo Sports:
Arizona Board of Regents has announced a meeting Thursday night. Here is the agenda: pic.twitter.com/A98HFSIE3r
— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) August 3, 2023
Thursday, Aug. 3
McMurphy provided further insight into the Pac-12’s current streaming-based media rights offer from Apple, reporting the average annual value per school is in the “low 20 millions.”
Apple’s primary media rights deal w/Pac-12 expires at end of week, sources told @ActionNetworkHQ. Proposal is in “low $20 million” figure per school/annually, but can fluctuate/increase based on membership size & subscription incentives, sources said
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) August 3, 2023
If money is a primary factor in Arizona and Arizona State’s decision to leave the conference, then the Pac-12’s proposed media rights deal — which reportedly expires at the end of the week — will not make it hard for those schools to stay. To compare, Colorado will join the Big 12 at a pro rata rate of $31.7 million, per numerous reports.
Thamel reported that Arizona is “in deep discussions” with the Big 12 to join the conference, and that “some finality is expected in the near future.”
Sources: Arizona is in deep discussions with the Big 12 about joining the league. Some finality is expected in the near future, as there’s an Arizona Board of Regents meeting scheduled for later tonight.
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) August 4, 2023
Ross Dellenger of Yahoo Sports reported Thursday night that the Big 12 approved Arizona’s application to join the conference. That leaves an approval from Arizona’s Board of Regents as the only remaining step
Big 12 executives met Thursday to approve the application of Arizona as a 14th member, sources tell @YahooSports, paving the way for the Wildcats to enter the conference. It is another step in UA’s path to join. The final step would be approval from its Board of Regents.
— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) August 4, 2023
Following news of the Big 12’s vote to approve Arizona, Thamel reported the next-likeliest moves from the Pac-12 will focus on Arizona State and Utah. In particular, Thamel reported Arizona State president Michael Crow has reversed course after initially being satisfied with the Pac-12’s $20 million per-year revenue projection from member institutions.
Thamel added that Utah has been more conservative in its decision to remain or stay before saying the two-time defending Pac-12 champions in football appear to be more open to a move to the Big 12. If the three remaining “Corner Schools” leave the Pac-12, it would officially be reduced to just six teams.
