With the teams selected and the path to the NCAA national championship set for all 68 teams, we can now take a closer look at the updated futures odds.
Even the most casual college hoops fans know that defending champion UConn remains one of the teams to beat. But does that make the Huskies the best bet to win it all or do better values exist elsewhere? Is it possible the reigning champs are slightly overrated or at least priced too high?
The rest of the field beyond UConn looks a bit different than it did a year ago. And many teams known as powerhouses of the past look like full-on fades for this year’s Big Dance. With futures betting, knowing who to avoid is just as important as knowing who to pinpoint when it comes to value.
Below we will reveal the most overrated teams you should steer clear of when making your 2024 NCAA Tournament futures bets on BetMGM.
TSN’s MARCH MADNESS HQ
Live NCAA bracket | Bracket busters, upset predictions | How to bet college hoops
March Madness Odds 2024: Beware of these overrated teams when making your futures bets
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Purdue Boilermakers (+600)
Let’s not forget when Purdue lost to 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson this time last year, in one of the most stunning upsets in NCAA history. The Boilermakers seem better equipped to avoid a similar catastrophe this time around, but we still don’t love their chances of getting through the field of 68 and cutting down the national championship nets. At these odds, we want a sure thing — and as good as Zach Edey has been, this team just flat-out ain’t a sure thing as long as UConn exists.
Everything needs to click for this team to survive the grueling schedule that is March Madness. The factors we feel will hurt Purdue: are its inability to force turnover, and its struggles to keep up with faster-paced teams. The Boilermakers maintained a 13.8 percent opponent turnovers-per-possession rate this season (336th) and averaged an abysmal 70.9 offensive possessions per game (163rd).
North Carolina Tar Heels (+1300)
The Tar Heels have the fifth-shortest odds to win the NCAA Tournament, which is already a red flag for a No. 1 seed. The bigger warning sign, though, was UNC’s issues with depth in its ACC Championship loss against NC State.
Once Hubert Davis’s team gets worn down, experiences foul trouble, or needs a spark off the bench, things start to fall apart. Don’t bet a squad at +1300 to emerge out of a field of 68 when it has already lost to Kentucky and Villanova and got beat by the defending champion UConn Huskies 87-76.
Kansas Jayhawks (+4000)
Kansas shouldn’t have even sniffed a 4-seed, and +4000 seems like a ripoff to any bettor trying to find long-shot value on the outright champion market.
The Jayhawks have been plagued by injuries practically the entire latter half of the season, they have lost four of their past five games and they have been outscored by a combined 148-98 over their past two games against Cincinnati and Houston. We wouldn’t touch Kansas with a 10-foot pole, even if its outright odds were up to +10000.
Kentucky Wildcats (+2500)
John Calipari and the Wildcats are household names in college hoops, but this year’s Kentucky squad seems like one of the weaker in recent history. Their perimeter defense often resembles a turnstile and they can get quite sloppy with the basketball under pressure.
We’ve seen Kentucky surrender 89 points or more nine times since Jan. 13 and we can’t trust this defense to get better — or the offense to win a bunch of shootouts — in a single-elimination, high-pressure environment like March Madness.
Duke Blue Devils (+3000)
Duke got upset in the ACC Tournament by eventual champions NC State, who ultimately won over top-seeded UNC. The Blue Devils looked far worse against the Wolfpack than the Tar Heels, though, so Duke’s chances of going all the way seem slim at best.
Duke shares the same region with the aforementioned Kentucky, so they will likely need to get past teams like James Madison, Texas Tech, Marquette and Houston just to get to the Final Four. Like UNC, the Blue Devils aren’t deep enough and can’t avoid foul trouble in clutch situations. Unlike UNC, they often struggle to shoot from deep. It ain’t happenin’, folks.
