College Football’s two lone undefeated programs clash for a chance at CFB immortality when top-seeded Michigan (-4.5) meets second-seeded Washington in Monday night’s National Championship (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
In their 27-20 overtime victory in the Rose Bowl, the top-seeded Wolverines rallied from a fourth-quarter deficit to notch their first-ever CFP win. Trailing 20-13 with 3:19 remaining, Alabama looked as if it was one stop away from ending Michigan’s historic season. That’s when offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore’s intuitive play-calling rose to another level, helping QB J.J. McCarthy find a wide-open Blake Corum for 27 yards, spearheading an eventual eight-play, 75-yard TD drive to knot the game at 20.
In overtime, Michigan reached the end zone effortlessly on two Corum runs, eventually stuffing Alabama QB Jalen Milroe on fourth-and-goal from the three to notch its first National Championship appearance since 1997.
The Sugar Bowl saw Washington effortlessly generate consistent scoring drives against Texas, with the Huskies’ Joe Moore award-winning offensive line providing Heisman runner-up Michael Penix Jr. plenty clean pockets to throw for 430 yards and two TDs in the Huskies’ 37-31 win. Although Washington maintained a two-score lead in the fourth, some unfortunate late-game miscues gave the Longhorns a last-gasp effort to steal a victory.
A crushing lower-leg injury to star running back Dylan Johnson, which may sideline him on Monday night, gave Texas a massive break prior to its final possession of the night, with the clock stopping with 50 seconds despite Steve Sarkisian and company being out of timeouts.
With under a minute and no timeouts, Texas had ample time to drive into the red zone, but Quinn Ewers couldn’t cap the drive off with a go-ahead scoring drive, as Washington’s pass defense showed up when it mattered most.
Will the Wolverines rough up the pocket and fluster Penix Jr. en route to their first National Championship in the CFP era, or will the Huskies continue to prove the betting market wrong, improving to 6-0 straight up as a underdog in the Kalen DeBoer era?
For those looking to bet on Michigan-Washington’s National Championship matchup, we’ll give you all the information you need before placing a wager, including the updated odds from BetMGM, and our predictions for the title game.
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Michigan vs. Washington odds, spread, over/under
- Spread: Michigan -4.5 (-105) | Washington +4.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: OVER 55.5 (-115) | UNDER 55.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Michigan -185 | Washington +155
Bettors might be surprised to again see the Huskies priced as underdogs, as Monday night marks the third straight game Washington will close as underdogs in. Washington has significantly outperformed the betting market, covering with ease in their past two games, and looks to do so once more en route to a National Championship.
Currently, the majority of bettors at BetMGM are siding with the underdog Huskies, with 62 percent of the spread and moneyline bets coming in on Washington.
The betting market has already made a slight adjustment to the CFP semifinals, as some legal books had Michigan priced as seven-point favorites in their look-ahead National Championship markets. Therefore, a 4.5-point spread is a fair number that gives respect to the top-seeded Wolverines.
In the four instances where the top two seeds have met in the National Championship game in the CFP era, the No. 2 seed boasts a perfect 4-0 record straight up. This trend may favor those looking to back the second-seeded Huskies on the moneyline.
As for the total, it’s pretty rare to see a number in the low 50s from a Michigan standpoint. Just two of their 11 power conference matchups closed with a total in the 50s (53.5 vs. Purdue, 51 @ Maryland) with both games going OVER the total.
Conversely, 13 of Washington’s 14 games this season had a over/under of at least 56 points, as they’re no stranger to projected high-scoring games.
Should you bet Michigan against the spread?
Despite Washington winning outright as underdogs in its past two games, we’d advise laying the points and betting on Michigan against the spread at -4.5 (-110). While there isn’t much of an edge in betting into a National Championship side market after opening, we ultimately think the Wolverines’ defensive line is the difference on Monday night.
Michigan’s ability to consistently get into Alabama’s backfield flustered Milroe all afternoon, as he was sacked six times in the Rose Bowl and was forced to bail out of the pocket as Michigan’s pass rush continued to win at the point of attack.
Although it’ll be tougher for Michigan to pressure Penix Jr. at the same clip when going against the nation’s best offensive line, we still expect Penix Jr. to feel some heat. As is the case for almost every quarterback, they perform vastly differently under pressure as opposed to clean pockets. While he’s only been pressured on 26.1 percent of his dropbacks this season, Penix Jr. has completed just 45.1 percent of his passes, resulting in a passer rating of 77.7.
Both the Michigan defense and Washington offense will face their toughest test to date, but we’re siding with Jesse Minter’s crew to throw off Penix Jr. and company just enough to churn out a five-plus point win. It’s not easy to hold Washington’s receiving trio of Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja’Lynn Polk in check, but if there’s a defense that can, it’s Michigan’s.
The Wolverines rank second nationally in passing yards allowed per game (150) while ranking fifth in dropback EPA (-0.128). Even when factoring in the offensive struggles of the Big Ten, it figures to be a tougher time moving the ball up the field for Penix Jr. and company.
On the other side of the ball, Michigan’s run-heavy nature figures to do its thing against a Washington defense ranking 99th in rush EPA (0.050). Moore’s reliable play-calling figures to make life easy for J.J. McCarthy, resulting in a strong offensive output for Michigan.
Our pick: Michigan -4.5 (-110)
Final score prediction: Michigan 30, Washington 24
Should you bet the Michigan vs. Washington OVER?
Although Washington’s potent offense makes it challenging for bettors to consider the UNDER 55.5 (-110), we’d advise betting on a lower-scoring matchup than projected. Michigan’s defense, which boasts Pro Football Focus’ fourth-highest pass rush grade (90.9), is likely to apply enough pressure on Penix Jr. to slow down the Huskies’ offense.
Michigan’s ground and pound nature tends to lead to lower-scoring games, and in a game they may very well control from the get-go, McCarthy might not be forced to pass at a high clip, with emphasis on Corum and fellow RB Donovan Edwards. We still expect points in this one, but with the over/under moving off a key number of 54.5, we’ll take a contrarian stance and back the UNDER.
Our pick: UNDER 55.5 (-110)
