The 2023 NBA Finals featuring the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat get underway on Thursday, June 1. While it’s not the Finals matchup many expected at the start of the playoffs, somebody will make history after this best-of-seven.
The Nuggets, who entered the postseason with the West’s best regular season record of 53-29, won the Western Conference for the first time in franchise history and attempt to parlay their impressive postseason run with their first NBA Championship.
On the flip side, the eighth-seeded Heat continue to defy the odds, becoming the second-ever No. 8 seed to reach the NBA Finals. If Miami can win four more games, it will be the first No. 8 seed to win an NBA championship, capping off an all-time postseason run for a team who punched its ticket to the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament.
Leading into Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals, Denver’s had ample time to rest up and prep, having last played on May 22. Miami only has two full days of rest before lacing up in Game 1 on Thursday night. Will fatigue hinder the Heat’s chances to steal homecourt advantage in Games 1 or 2, or will Denver need to shake off some early rust?
Below, we’ll down the Nuggets-Heat series odds via BetMGM and predict how we think the 2023 NBA Finals might shake out.
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Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Finals series odds, picks, predictions
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, an Authorized Gaming Operator of the NBA. Click HERE to sign up!
| Team | Series Odds |
| Heat | +300 |
| Nuggets | -400 |
As has been the case all postseason, the betting market gives the eighth-seeded Heat little to no respect, pegging Denver as -400 favorites (implied probability: 80 percent) to win the title. Miami’s series price tag of +300 pits it with a 25-percent chance to win its fourth title in franchise history, and while it’s proven the betting market wrong time and time again, Denver profiles as a team that can deliver the knock-out punch.
Denver opened as -350 favorites on the series line and has since been bet up to -400, as bettors with market influence felt the opening series price was relatively short. After ending the regular season 27th in offensive rating (112.3), the Heat’s offense is operating much more efficiently during their Finals run, donning a 116.1 offensive rating through three rounds.
That said, the Nuggets boast the Association’s most efficient offense in the playoffs (119.7 offrtg) with a net rating of 8.0. In addition, both teams sport nearly identical defensive ratings this postseason, with Miami holding a slight advantage (111.5 defrtg) compared to Denver’s defensive rating of 111.7.
Although the Heat have gone 6-4 in road games this postseason, winning inside Ball Arena will be their tallest task to date. Denver owns a dominant 42-7 home record this year, including a perfect 8-0 mark in the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
Additionally, the Nuggets’ Game 1 moneyline is priced similarly at -375 (implied probability: 78.95 percent), with their Game 2 moneyline likely sitting in the same neighborhood barring a significant injury in Game 1. Of course, it’s part of the gamble, but if you think the Heat maintain their historic postseason run, it might be wise to wait until the series shifts back to Miami to bet the Heat’s series price near its peak (assuming the Nuggets take care of business in Games 1 and 2).
While each situation differs and calls for a unique approach, most casual bettors generally prefer to avoid laying a -400 price in a championship series featuring two worthy teams. We agree that Denver is warranted as the series favorite, but we think there are other ways to get action down on the Nuggets to win the 2023 NBA Finals outside of laying a -400 price tag on their series price.
BetMGM‘s insights have seen early bettors take the +300 price on the Heat to win it all, with 59 percent of early bets coming in on Miami. Yes, the Heat have proven they’re better than what they were in the regular season and are nothing like a traditional No. 8 seed, but considering Miami had +12500 odds to win the title before its first-round series against Milwaukee and had +1400 odds before Game 7 last night, we wouldn’t recommend betting them at +300 with their championship odds at their peak.
Prediction: Nuggets (-400) defeat the Heat in five games.
NBA Finals 2023 odds: Best series-long prop bets for Nuggets-Heat
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, an Authorized Gaming Operator of the NBA. Click HERE to sign up!
Correct series result
| Series result | Odds |
| Denver Nuggets (4-1) | +225 |
| Denver Nuggets (4-3) | +325 |
| Denver Nuggets (4-2) | +400 |
| Denver Nuggets (4-0) | +450 |
| Miami Heat (4-2) | +750 |
| Miami Heat (4-3) | +950 |
| Miami Heat (4-1) | +2000 |
| Miami Heat (4-0) | +4000 |
For one of our best series-long props, we’ll look toward the correct series result market and wager on the Nuggets to win the NBA Finals 4-1 at +225 odds. We think the Nuggets hold serve in Games 1 and 2 at Ball Arena, split Games 3 and 4 at the Kaseya Center, and wrap things up back home in Game 5. It’s not the heftiest of paydays, as a 4-1 Denver series win is priced with the lowest odds at +225.
However, we think wagering into the correct series result market is better than betting the Nuggets to win the NBA Finals at -400. If you think Miami can win two games, you could bet on a 4-2 series win for Denver at +325. Bettors would finish in the black if they wager on both outcomes and Denver wins the series in five or six games.
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Best Bet(s): Denver Nuggets 4-1 (+225) and/or Denver Nuggets 4-2 (+325)
Series Total Games Over/Under
| Series result | Over | Under |
| 4.5 games | -650 | +425 |
| 5.5 games | -145 | +120 |
| 6.5 games | +225 | -275 |
We’ll also look toward betting into the total games market, and we’re enticed by the +120 price on UNDER 5.5 games. While we’d enjoy a competitive NBA Finals that goes six or seven games, how will Miami contain two-time MVP Nikola Jokic? Entering the Finals, the Joker is averaging a triple-double, recording 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists over Denver’s 15 playoff games.
Will Miami defend Jokic as they did in the regular season by attempting to front his post touches with Bam Adebayo? Putting two defenders on Jokic with a help-side defender in sight will only lead to the Joker finding the open man. That will force Miami into their defensive rotations, likely leading to high-percentage looks from the Nuggets. Do they give Kevin Love or Cody Zeller more run, letting Adebayo defend more as a roamer like the Lakers did with Anthony Davis? Does Miami try to disrupt the Nuggets’ offense by playing more zone?
It will be fascinating to see how the Heat attempt to slow down the most efficient offense in the playoffs, but even factoring in the number of wrinkles Miami throws Denver’s way, having two elite playmaking ballhandlers in Jokic and Jamal Murray is tough to contain over 48 minutes. Coinciding with our series prediction of a 4-1 series win for Denver, we’ll take a shot on this series to go UNDER 5.5 games at +120.
Best Bet: UNDER 5.5 total games (+120)
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Top points scorer
| Player | Odds |
| Nikola Jokic | +130 |
| Jimmy Butler | +175 |
| Jamal Murray | +200 |
| Michael Porter Jr. | +2000 |
| Bam Adebayo | +2500 |
| Caleb Martin | +3500 |
| Gabe Vincent | +5000 |
| Max Strus | +8000 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | +8000 |
| Aaron Gordon | +10000 |
With Jokic sitting as the overwhelming favorite to win Finals MVP (-350) and record the most rebounds (-1000) and assists (-10000), we’d rather bet on him to record the most points at +130. Surprise, surprise, Jokic is averaging a triple-double in two regular-season games against the Heat this year (23 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists), as Adebayo’s been no match for the 6-11, 284-pound Serbian sensation.
Jokic has had little trouble backing down Adebayo one-on-one, and it’s unlikely we’ll see the Heat choose to defend him straight up. He’s simply too gifted of a scorer to end the Finals averaging less than 20 points per game and/or shooting inefficiently. Jimmy Butler (+175) and Jamal Murray (+200) are priced as the lone contenders to lead the Finals in scoring, but we’re not sure Butler scores at an efficient enough clip to outscore Jokic.
The Nuggets’ significant frontcourt edge could lead to Jokic putting up more points than Murray despite Murray ending the Western Conference Finals averaging 32.5 points to Jokic’s 27.8. The Lakers had somewhat formidable bodies in the frontcourt to keep Jokic in check, while Miami has little to work with.
Best Bet: Nikola Jokic (+130)
