When the season got underway, the NBA Rookie of the Year lines heavily favored the No. 1 pick in the 2023 Draft, Victor Wembanyama, followed by Chet Holmgren and Scoot Henderson.
But with roughly 20% of the season in the books, the latest lines have the competition down to Wembanyama and Holmgren.
Both were expected to contend for Rookie of the Year honors when the season got underway. But the difference between their odds and the rest of the board has increased.
Latest 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year odds
Here are the latest odds to win NBA Rookie of the Year from the top sports betting sites:
Wembanyama began the season as a heavy favorite to win ROY honors. But while he has had a solid season overall for the Spurs, his play has been inconsistent. His scoring has ranged from a high of 38 points to a low of just eight.
While he averages a respectable 9.5 rebounds per game, his production has fluctuated wildly throughout the season. He’s pulled down double-digit boards eight times, with a high of 15 and a low of three.
It certainly doesn’t help that Wembanyama plays for one of the worst teams in the NBA.
From a statistical perspective, Holmgren is having a comparable season to Wembanyama’s but trails him slightly in several categories. However, he leads in one category that speaks to how well both are playing — efficiency.
As of Nov. 30, Holmgren’s efficiency is listed at 23.9, while Wembanyama’s is 21.5.
Holmgren may also have a slight advantage since he plays for a team (Oklahoma City Thunder) that would be the No. 5 seed if the playoffs were to start today. San Antonio is battling it out with Memphis for the worst record in the Western Conference.
Bet(s) to consider and one not to consider
- Victor Wembanyama
Greatness was expected of Wembanyama coming into the season. While he has played well enough to be at the forefront of the ROY discussion, he has not separated himself from the rest of the field.
Holmgren is the only other player that appears to be in contention. For Wembanyama to win ROY over Holmgren, he’ll need to continue to produce but with more consistency. As long as he stays healthy, he’ll get the chance to do so on a team as bad as the Spurs.
After another solid game or two against decent opponents, his odds will go back down. So, bet on him now while you can still get plus-money odds.
- Do not bet on Chet Holmgren
There isn’t much value in betting on him now at his current odds. But with 60-plus games still to come, there is plenty of time for his odds to shift back to plus-money. Wait until they do to put your money down.
NBA Rookie of the Year odds: Longshots
According to their odds, Holmgren and Wembanyama have a better than 50% chance of winning ROY. But with roughly 80% of the season still to go, there is plenty of time for either or both to have a fall from grace and/or for someone else to rise.
They are heavy favorites for a reason, so if you decide to roll the dice on a long shot, we recommend keeping your wagers relatively small.
- Ausar Thompson
Thompson is having a solid season on the boards for the lowly Pistons (2-16). But he’ll need to pick up his game on the offensive end of the court to have a chance. It certainly doesn’t help that he plays for arguably the worst team in the NBA.
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Jaquez Jr. is not playing as well as several other rookies but is playing well for a team in the playoff hunt (Miami). That means there will be more eyes on him if he can pick up his game.
- Derek Lively II
Lively has been among the more efficient rookies this season (15.6; fourth-best), but his stats are otherwise unimpressive. He may just need the opportunity to play a more significant role.
Luka Doncic has yet to play an entire season, and Kyrie Irving has not played more than 67 games in a year since he left Cleveland. Should either miss significant time, the door could open for Lively to have more of an impact.
