The 2023 NFL season concludes this weekend, live on Sky Sports; Saturday double-header sees Steelers visit Ravens from 9.30pm, before Colts host Texans in ‘win-and-in’ clash; on Sunday from 6pm. Jaguars visit Titans, followed by Bears at Packers and Bills at Dolphins in battle for AFC East
Last Updated: 04/01/24 6:33pm
The 2023 NFL regular season draws to a close this weekend, with plenty to play for, playoff places on the line, and seedings still to be determined. Here, we take a look at precisely what’s at stake in Week 18…
Dolphins or Bills: Who wins the AFC East?
Arguably, the highlight of the weekend wraps up the season, with the AFC East title on the line as the Miami Dolphins (11-5) host the Buffalo Bills (10-6) on Sunday Night Football – live on Sky Sports NFL from 1.20am, Monday.
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Though a defeat would see them lose their grip on the division, the Dolphins are at least assured of a playoff spot regardless of the result.
The same can’t be said of the Bills, however. They need one of the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) or Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) to fail to win their respective games, or for the Houston Texans (9-7) at Indianapolis Colts (9-7) clash to end in a tie.
The Bills will at least know their fate heading into the division-decider in Miami, with all of those other games being played prior to the season-ending matchup. Will they too be assured of a postseason berth, even with a loss? Or will it be ‘division title or bust’ to up the stakes of their dust-up with the Dolphins?
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Who takes wild card spots in AFC?
With it likely that the loser of Bills at Dolphins claims one of the two remaining AFC wild card berths – and with the Cleveland Browns (11-5) already locked in at No 5 – it looks set to be a four-way battle of sorts for the final playoff position in the conference.
Those four teams are the Jaguars (9-7), current AFC South leaders, fellow division rivals the Texans (9-7) and the Colts (9-7), who clash in Indy on Saturday night – live on Sky Sports NFL, 1.15am, Sunday – and the Steelers (9-7).
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A win for the Jaguars at the Tennessee Titans (5-11) on Sunday – live on Sky Sports NFL, 6pm – will see them clinch the AFC South and a home playoff tie against the Browns during Wild Card Weekend, with the winner of the Texans and Colts then poised to claim the final seventh AFC seeding.
However, defeat for Jacksonville would open the door for Colts or Texans to pinch the division crown themselves. And, in that scenario, the Jaguars are suddenly in danger of missing the playoffs altogether.
The Steelers would leapfrog them into one of the wild card positions with a victory at AFC No 1 seeds Baltimore Ravens (13-3) on Saturday – live on Sky Sports NFL, 9.30pm. Pittsburgh could even claim that spot with defeat, provided the already-eliminated Denver Broncos (8-8) win their match at the Las Vegas Raiders (7-9).
Meanwhile, the only scenario in which the Colts and Texans BOTH qualify for the playoffs is if their game ends in a tie and the Jaguars AND Steelers both lose. In that instance, Indianapolis would finish as AFC South winners on the basis of their superior head-to-head record against Houston, who would qualify along with Buffalo and/or Miami as a wild card.
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Bucs, Saints or Falcons: Who wins NFC South?
The outlook is a whole lot easier in the NFC, with two playoff spots still to be decided, one of which is the small matter of who finishes as NFC South champions?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) are the current clubhouse leaders, and a win at the lowly Carolina Panthers (2-14) on Sunday would confirm a third-straight division title.
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Next in line are the New Orleans Saints (8-8), who must better the Buccaneers’ result when they host the Atlanta Falcons in order to oust them in top spot. Should both teams win, there is the chance that they both make the playoffs, the Saints as a wild card… but we’ll get to that in a moment.
The Falcons (7-9), meanwhile, have zero chance of earning a wild card berth. Their equation is simple: they must win in New Orleans AND the Bucs must lose in order for them to pinch the division crown and a home playoff game on Wild Card Weekend.
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Who claims final NFC wild card berth?
Contending for the final wild card berth in the conference are the Green Bay Packers (8-8), the Seattle Seahawks (8-8), the Saints (8-8) and the Minnesota Vikings (7-9).
The Packers are in the driving seat, knowing that victory at home against the Chicago Bears (7-9) on Sunday – live on Sky Sports NFL, 9.25pm – would guarantee they live on to play another week.
Should they fail to do so, it’s the Seahawks who would jump up into that seventh spot with a road win at the Arizona Cardinals (4-12). If both teams are unsuccessful, then a New Orleans win sees them take that coveted No 7 seed (provided they don’t beat Tampa Bay to the AFC South division).
The Vikings, meanwhile, have the hardest path to the postseason ahead of them. They need to not only win on the road at the Detroit Lions (11-5), but Seattle AND Green Bay would both have to lose, as well as one of the Buccaneers or Saints.
There is also the smallest of chances that the Bucs can nab the final spot if they were to fail to clinch the South, but only if they tie with the Panthers AND the Seahawks and Packers both lose. Have you got all of that?!
What else is there to play for in Week 18?
Still a fair bit. Specifically, a lot of jockeying for seeding.
In both conferences the No 1 seeds are at least sewn up, with the Ravens (13-3) top dogs of the AFC and the San Francisco 49ers (12-4) leading the way in the NFC, but that’s about all that is confirmed – other than Cleveland being locked in at No 5 in the AFC, as previously mentioned, and the Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) at No 3.
So let’s start over in that conference shall we? The Browns are guaranteed to visit the winners of the AFC South on Wild Card Weekend, while Kansas City will definitely host the Dolphins, if they’re beaten by the Bills.
While there is the possibility that Buffalo instead come to Kansas City should the Dolphins win that matchup, in that scenario the Chiefs could also end up hosting any one of the Colts, Texans or Steelers, with the Bills potentially earning back-to-back trips to Miami or maybe dropping out of the playoffs altogether.
In the NFC, no team – other than the 49ers – is locked in place, although it’s looking very probable that the Lions (11-5) and quarterback Jared Goff host his former team, the Los Angeles Rams (9-7) – with their QB Matthew Stafford too heading home to Detroit – over Wild Card Weekend.
That’s because there are very few scenarios available in which the Lions and Rams don’t respectively end up as the No 3 and No 6 seeds, setting up a postseason meeting.
The only way they avoid this is if one of the Dallas Cowboys (11-5) and Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) give up the No 2 seed, by both suffering final day defeats at the Washington Commanders (4-12) and New York Giants (5-11), respectively, opening the door for Detroit if they beat Minnesota. Also, Los Angeles would relinquish the No 6 seed to the Packers (8-8) with a final-day defeat to San Francisco and a Green Bay win over Chicago.
More likely though is that the Packers, Seahawks, Saints or whoever claims that final NFC wild card berth and then will travel to the winners of the NFC East, which looks set to be the Cowboys barring any late divisional drama, seeing the runners-up – most probably Philadelphia – visiting the NFC South champions.
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