The phrase “make-or-miss league” has been thrown around more than ever in this year’s playoffs. A lot of time is spent discussing strategy, mistakes and heroic performances, but these games often come down to which team shoots better from 3-point range.
Consider this: Of the 77 playoff games played through May 26, teams that shot better from deep were 61-15. (The Celtics and Hawks both shot 42.9 percent on 3-pointers in Game 6 of their first-round series, but Boston had more total makes.)
The make-or-miss effect has been much stronger as the discrepancy between shooting percentages grows larger. In the 26 playoff games in which a team has shot at least 10 percent better than its opponent on 3-pointers, the hot-shooting team has gone 25-1.
And the eight occasions in which a team has managed to shoot 20 percent better than its opponent have all ended in double-digit blowout wins.
MORE: Jayson Tatum looks to add to impressive history in elimination games
The Celtics are the ultimate make-or-miss team
There has been a lot of hand-wringing about the Celtics. Their heart has been questioned, Joe Mazzulla’s various flaws as a coach have been nitpicked and plenty of other reasons have been suggested for why they have been so up-and-down.
But most of their playoff results can be tied back to how hot they were from beyond the arc on any given night.
The Celtics have shot better than their opponent from deep nine times this postseason. They are 8-1 in those games. Their only loss came in overtime of Game 4 against the 76ers.
They lost that game by one point and shot only 0.4 percent better than the Sixers. The Celtics also would have won that game had Marcus Smart hit an open triple at the end of regulation or gotten his 3-pointer off a half-second sooner at the end of overtime.
In the eight games that the Celtics have shot worse than their opponent, they are 1-7.
The effect of hot shooting for the Celtics has been even more pronounced in their up-and-down Eastern Conference Finals series with the Heat.
| Game | Celtics 3PT% | Heat 3PT% | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34.5% | 51.6% | Heat |
| 2 | 28.6% | 34.6% | Heat |
| 3 | 26.2% | 54.3% | Heat |
| 4 | 40.0% | 25.0% | Celtics |
| 5 | 41.0% | 39.1% | Celtics |
The Celtics do shoot a lot of 3-pointers — their 38.7 attempts per game rank fourth out of 16 playoff teams. It would make sense then that they are subject to the whims of 3-point variance. But even teams that don’t shoot many 3-pointers saw a huge make-or-miss effect during this year’s playoffs.
The Suns shot the fewest amount of 3-pointers in the postseason (25.8 per game). Their record when shooting better than their opponent from deep was 4-1. When they shot worse, they were 2-4.
The randomness of 3-point percentage
The obvious conclusion from seeing the importance of 3-point percentage is that teams should do everything in their power to make sure that their opponents miss. The problem with that idea? There have been multiple studies showing that 3-point percentage from game to game is largely random.
If you don’t believe the studies, then watch the games. Guys have become such good shot-makers that even elite defensive sequences can end with a bucket.
This might be the most amazing sequence I’ve ever seen. I’m not kidding… I’m just a nerd
Elite spacing, perfect offensive decision-making, perfect defensive rotations to cover, making shots anyway.. it’s pristine down to the smallest detail
Modern basketball is so interesting pic.twitter.com/v54fpdrmHz
— The Box and One (@TheBoxAndOne_) May 26, 2023
This is not to say that defensive technique is useless. Players shoot better when uncontested, and defenses can (somewhat) control for how many 3-pointers a team attempts. But trying to control 3-point percentage over the course of 40 or so attempts is a pretty hard thing to do.
The takeaway here is that, when we try to build narratives around results, they can oftentimes be subject to dramatic overreactions. Playoff games don’t boil down to pure luck, but it is useful to understand that luck does play a significant role in the outcome of games.
For instance, if a team like the Heat builds up a 3-0 lead while shooting 48 percent from deep over the course of those games, then that is probably more of a reason they are ahead rather than any particular coaching decisions.
Both may have had an effect, but one is much more of a driving factor than the other.
