With his fourth Super Bowl appearance in five years, Patrick Mahomes has entered the discussion of greatest quarterback of all time. As such, he has also become one of the most popular (and dependable) players on the NFL prop market.
Bettors can’t just blindly bet whatever OVER a sportsbook or player prop site lists for star QBs, though. The best of the best almost always see inflated lines and bloated odds when the lights shine the brightest, because people love betting the OVER and casuals rush in on Super Bowl Sunday.
That’s why it’s important to analyze player projections with your mind, not your heart, and review matchups rather than names and past performances. Don’t set yourself up for betting failure by blindly following the crowd — do the research and form your decisions accordingly.
Better yet, let us do the research for you. All season long, we have assessed value on the BetMGM and SuperDraft player prop markets, helping countless bettors boost their bankrolls with winning wagers.
Let’s dive into the best Patrick Mahomes props for Super Bowl 58 between the Chiefs and 49ers, ranking them in order of value and letting you know which way we lean on each one.
Patrick Mahomes touchdown and passing yards props for Super Bowl
Patrick Mahomes passing touchdowns — OVER 1.5 (-155 on BetMGM)
It’s a little juiced up, but this feels like a lock. Mahomes always gets his stats up on the biggest of stages, and we have to believe he’s gunning to become the third player in NFL history to win three Super Bowl MVPs (he’s the odds-on leader to win the award at +135, with Brock Purdy behind him at +230 and Christian McCaffrey third at +450).
We understand why so many people have bet on Travis Kelce to win MVP (he’s easily the most heavily bet player on BetMGM’s SB MVP market at +1300). If any tight end ever wins it, it will probably be Mr. Swift. But can he win the award with under two TD grabs? Doubtful.
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Any way you slice it, Mahomes to toss at least two TDs is a great bet. If Kansas City wins easily, it’s probably because Mahomes dominated. If the 49ers hold on to win, Mahomes will be slinging the ball like crazy trying to come from behind.
Since Week 1 of this season, the two-time league MVP has thrown for multiple TDs in seven games that were decided by one score and four games in which Kansas City beat opponents by double-digits. He has also thrown at least two TDs in 12 of his 17 career postseason games, and in seven of his past nine dating back to the 2022 Playoffs. It’s a ‘yes’ from us.
Patrick Mahomes rushing yards — UNDER 26.5 (SuperDraft)
People must be suffering from the Mandela Effect, because betting on Mahomes to go OVER 26.5 rushing yards seems like one of the more bizarre bets out there and yet tons of bettors have been pulling the trigger!
Mahomes has gone UNDER 26.5 rushing yards in 18 of the 19 Kansas City games he has played this season, and we don’t think he will suddenly look to beat a tough 49ers defense with his legs.
If Andy Reid and the Chiefs run the ball, they will do so with stud running back Isiah Pacheco to open up the field for the pass. They’re not risking injury by putting their franchise QB and two-time Super Bowl MVP in harm’s way amongst the Fred Warners and the Nick Bosas. Smash the UNDER with confidence.
Patrick Mahomes passing yards — OVER 262.5 (SuperDraft)
We’re pounding the OVER on this one, too. This is a massive number, we get it, but one that he has hit in 11 of his 17 postseason games (he came a half-yard short of making it 12 a few weeks ago vs. Miami at a bitterly-cold Arrowhead Stadium).
Mahomes has put his team on his back countless times this season, and he averaged 261.4 passing yards per game despite his receivers leading the NFL in drops. No QB other than Brady or Montana has been more clutch in big games than this guy, so we’re rolling with Mahomes to put up 275 and two scores.
Patrick Mahomes pass attempts — OVER 36.5 (SuperDraft)
We’re like Oprah with these OVER picks — you get an OVER and you get an OVER and you get an OVER! But how can we go UNDER here? He averaged 37.4 pass attempts during the regular season and he has exceeded 38 passes in two of the Chiefs’ past three games to get here. Going back further, he has gone OVER 36.5 in eight of his past 11 postseason games.
The 49ers tend to see a lot of pass attempts against them, too. Only the Eagles and Ravens had more passes attempted against them than San Francisco (36.5 per game), and the Niners have defended 37.5 pass attempts per game during this postseason. Don’t get cute and bet the best QB in the game to hand the ball off 20-25 times. Win or lose, Mahomes will be swinging early and often — especially if he’s trying to bring the Chiefs back from a deficit which he did in both of his two Super Bowl wins.
