Our tipster Jones Knows provides his betting insight and analysis across the penultimate weekend of the Premier League.
Manchester United vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Arsenal to win to nil away from home is becoming a real comfort blanket of a bet. It’s simple but is yielding fantastic returns. The Gunners, since the start of last season, are working at a 57 per cent win to nil ratio away from home in the Premier League. My maths make an Arsenal win to nil about an even-money shot yet we’re getting 15/8 with Sky Bet here, so it has to come under consideration.
This phenomenal defence has now conceded just two goals in the last seven Premier League matches away from home and has conceded a per-90 average of just 0.67-worth of expected goals across the last 16 Premier League games. It’s a remarkable number.
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I think the only way Manchester United can get something out of this game is if it becomes almost too easy for Arsenal.
Erik ten Hag’s men are good at that, being so bad in a game that it lures the opposition into a false sense of security – as happened in their fixtures against Liverpool – and then in a 10-minute period United’s big-game players come to the party and the opposition aren’t mentally prepared.
Mikel Arteta is all about control though, so won’t allow his business-like side take their eyes off the prize. Arteta will be heading there with his first priority being a clean sheet – if Arsenal achieve that, they win the game. The under 3.5 goals line at 4/5 with Sky Bet is the standout play at the prices.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Aston Villa vs Liverpool, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Liverpool look a great bet here.
Villa will be drained from their trip to Greece on Thursday where they were bitterly disappointing, and Unai Emery has really struggled to contain Jurgen Klopp’s teams in the past. Since beating Liverpool in the 2016 Europa League Final with Sevilla, Emery is winless in nine matches vs Klopp, conceding three or more goals in six of those nine matches, including in the reverse fixture this season that Liverpool won 3-0, and the game at Villa Park last season that ended 3-1 to Liverpool.
Villa have spent 153 nights in the Premier League top four this season so probably deserve their Champions League qualification on that basis, but they are limping over the line. They are becoming a very easy team to score against.
Over the last 15 Premier League games, they’ve averaged a per-90 expected goals against figure of 1.91 which is the fourth worst in the Premier League – even worse than Sheffield United. When assessing their big chance conceded data it gets worse – in the last 15 games only Luton have offered up more “big chances” as defined by Opta – that’s 42 in 15 games to an average of 2.8 per game.
And Liverpool are the kings of creating those big chances – no team have created more this season than their 95.
Backing Liverpool to win and over 2.5 goals at 11/10 with Sky Bet looks a winner in waiting.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
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