At some point soon, the market will be flooded with Victor Wembanyama cards.
Seriously, just wait until Panini has the license/ability to print dozens and dozens of parallels of every single Wembanyama base card and every subset card and every insert card and every autograph card. We are about to see what market saturation truly looks like.
But that day has not arrived yet. Panini’s release/printing schedule is months behind “normal” time frames, so there have been no announcements on products such as Prizm/Contenders/Chronicles Draft Picks, Beckett’s Hobby Editor Ryan Cracknell told me. Those products typically would have been released this time of the year, but don’t expect them to magically show up on retail shelves anytime soon.
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The NBA Draft is June 22, and that’s when the gigantic French phenom is expected to go, as the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, to the Spurs. The levels of hype for Wembanyama have reached mildly insane levels, what with talking heads on TV saying this might be the most important draft in NBA history, like they’ve forgotten that LeBron James is still active and playing in the league.
The thing is, there hasn’t really been much out there in the way of Wembanyama trading cards. This winter, Sports Illustrated for Kids produced a Wembanyama card, one of those you have to tear out of the magazine along a perforated line. A card graded PSA 8 sold for $4,500, and one graded SGC 9 sold for $6,000. Copies of the magazine with the card still intact are regularly selling for $230 or more on eBay. Even massively off-center ones that have been ripped out are going for $150.
Now, though, we’re about to enter the era of “real” Wembanyama cards. Heads-up: Our first steps into those waters are chilly, and expensive.
The Bowman University Inception boxes were released on May 19. Wembanyama doesn’t have a base card in the set, but he does have an autograph card. Topps/Bowman is playing fast and loose with the idea of this set; it’s the Bowman “University” Inception set, but the multisport product includes a lot of players not playing for a university, including Wembanyama, who is shown in the uniform of his team in France, Metropolitans 92. There are high school basketball players in the set, too, including Scoot Henderson, who is expected to go No. 2 or No. 3 in the draft.
Sealed boxes are selling at Topps dot com for $199.99. The actual Wembanyama autographed cards are not in the product, just redemption cards. There have been several opened so far and sold on eBay, for astronomical prices — the base auto has sold for at least $2,500 a couple of times. There’s a Gold parallel (/50) that’s currently listed at $12,999.
Before you run out and buy a box on eBay, though, know this: Opening any sort of pack is essentially like playing the lottery, but Bowman’s Inception product is like playing an extremely low-odds lottery. That they haven’t sold out on the Topps website should probably tell you something. For your $200, you’ll get only seven cards.
Two of those are autographed cards (or auto relics, with a jersey patch or something), and one is a base parallel. The other four are base cards, and remember that Wembanyama doesn’t have a base card in the set. So if getting a Wembanyama is your thing, you’re paying $200 hoping that one of the two autographed cards is, in fact, the Wembanyama. And here’s the thing: There are 190 different autographed cards on the checklist. Some of those players are late-round NFL draft picks, or hoopers who won’t get picked in the NBA Draft.
Mathematically, it’s entirely possible that you could open 94 boxes of Inception at $200 each, not get even a single double autograph of any player (I’m not even counting parallels) and still not get the Wembanyama auto until your 95th box. By that point, you’d be way past $20,000, after taxes and shipping.
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Now, of course, Wembanyama isn’t the only player worth having from the Inception product. Iowa superstar Caitlin Clark is a fun addition; a couple of her autographed gold parallels (numbered to 50) sold for a couple of thousand over the weekend. Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, has an autographed card, too.
But if Wembanyama is your goal, Inception a complete boom-or-bust proposal. That’s not to say not to try it. Because, look, I get the appeal. SOMEBODY is going to get those Wembanyama autographs, and SOMEBODY is going to get the parallel Wembanyama autos, and that’s super serious cash, no doubt, for a $200 lottery ticket.
Just know what you’re getting into.
If you just want a more palatable entry point, one that won’t completely bust your budget, you won’t have to wait too long. The Bowman University Chrome Basketball set has a June 2 release date. This is a regular set, with normal base cards. Hobby boxes have 24 packs, with four cards per pack. Blasters have seven packs, with four cards per pack. There are, of course, all kinds of parallels and inserts.
The checklist hasn’t been released yet, so I’m not sure whether he’s in the base set.
Oh, and this card …
Genius inscription to get Victor Wembanyama to put on a Bowman U card #1stEver pic.twitter.com/7wYL1gSSmN
— The Breaks (@WatchTheBreaks) May 15, 2023
That’s from this set. It might seem strange that the card Wembanyama wrote “1st ever signed card” wasn’t in the first product to hit the market that includes his signed card, but just add that to the long list of things in this hobby that don’t line up, eh?
And here’s a free word of advice. Well, I guess it’s more of an opinion: If you are one of the lucky souls who gets a Wembanyama auto, sell it now. Like, immediately.
#TheHobby Life is TSN’s weekly column on, well, #TheHobby. Join us every Monday morning for a conversation about collecting — the people, the companies, the cards, the nostalgia and the business of an industry that’s still thriving despite predictions of doom and collapse.
