South Dakota State, the defending FCS champs, have cruised through the 2023 season, beating opponents by an average of 25.8 points. However, they could be in for a real challenge when they take on Villanova in FCS quarterfinals action Saturday.
As could be expected, the Jackrabbits opened as heavy favorites in this rematch of last season’s FCS quarterfinals. But the Wildcats gave them a run for their money in that game and could do so again this year.
Villanova vs. South Dakota State: spread, moneyline and total
The Wildcats led the Jackrabbits in their 2021 FCS quarterfinals matchup at halftime, 21-14. But South Dakota State dominated the second, scoring 21 points while shutting out Villanova.
Here are live Villanova vs. South Dakota State odds from top sports betting apps:
Villanova vs. South Dakota State trends and history
- South Dakota State enters the game 12-0 and is working on a 26-game winning streak.
- The Jackrabbits’ last loss was in the 2022 season opener vs. Iowa, 7-3. Their last loss to an FCS opponent was vs. Montana State in the 2021 FCS playoff semifinals.
- Villanova is 10-2, having won their last seven, including a 45-28 win over Youngstown State in the second round of the FCS playoffs.
- The Wildcats’ last loss was vs. UAlbany in Weeks 5, 31-10.
- South Dakota State and Villanova have played twice, both games coming in the postseason:
- 2016 FCS second round: South Dakota State 10 Villanova 7
- 2021 FCS quarterfinals: South Dakota State 35 Villanova 21
- South Dakota State has qualified for postseason play in 12 consecutive seasons, 14 overall.
- This season marks the seventh time the Jackrabbits have made it to the quarterfinals and fourth in a row. Their only quarterfinal loss came in 2016.
- South Dakota State has shut out two opponents and won by double-digits in 10 of 12 games this season.
- Since winning the FCS national championship in 2009, Villanova has made the postseason in six of 13 seasons and two of the last six (not including this season).
- The Wildcats last played in the postseason in 2021, losing to South Dakota State in the quarterfinals.
- This season marks the eighth time Villanova has played in the FCS quarterfinals; they are currently 3-4 in quarterfinals games.
- The Wildcats recorded one shutout this season (vs. Elon) and double-digit wins in all 10 victories.
Villanova vs. South Dakota State betting analysis
The question of the postseason, so far, has been whether anyone can beat the defending champs, South Dakota State. They have a top-five run game, the second-best run defense in the FCS, the No. 1 scoring defense and total defense, an offense that generates 457 yards per game, and a top-10 pass defense.
If there is a weakness in their game, it is hard to find.
The only game the Jackrabbits were in danger of losing this season was vs. Montana State in Week 2. The Bobcats got out to an early 10-0 lead and led 16-13 late in the fourth quarter before a late Mark Gronowski touchdown pass secured the win for SDSU.
To have a shot at the upset, Villanova will need to take a page out of the Montana State playbook. They will need to dominate time of possession by establishing their run game.
But that will not be easy, While they average 220-plus yards per game on the ground, the Jackrabbits only give up 90.5 (and just two rushing touchdowns).
An effective passing game would help, but the key lies in getting the run game on track and keeping the South Dakota State offense off the field.
For more FCS quarterfinals action: Furman vs. Montana | North Dakota State vs. South Dakota | Albany vs. Idaho
Bets to consider
Villanova
It is hard to see Villanova slowing down the SDSU juggernaut enough to win the game, but the Wildcats are a good enough team to make it a competitive contest, at least in the first half. South Dakota State will pull away in the second but will not win by 20-plus points.
UNDER
Both teams have talented offenses and strong defenses. Look for this game to be a lot like the SDSU-Montana State matchup. The Jackrabbits will figure out a way to win, but the game should be relatively close and low scoring.
